{"id":438,"date":"2025-12-17T00:23:36","date_gmt":"2025-12-17T00:23:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/aim3d\/?page_id=438"},"modified":"2026-10-14T20:21:53","modified_gmt":"2026-10-14T20:21:53","slug":"tentative-agenda-2","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/aim3d\/knowledge-network\/aim4d-conference\/tentative-agenda-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Program"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

AI-driven Modeling & Forecasting for Democratic Development and Decline (AIM4D)<\/strong>
International Conference at the University of Notre Dame<\/strong>
October 15-17, 2026<\/strong>
Conveners: Michael Coppedge<\/a> and Dmitry Zaytsev<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thursday, October 15, 2026<\/strong>
before 6:00 pm: Arrival & Check-in for Panelists and Paper Presenters (the Morris Inn)
6:00 – 8:00 pm: Welcome Dinner for Panelists and Paper Presenters (Hesburgh Center Great Hall)
Note: general registrants can check in on Friday<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Friday, October 16, 2026<\/strong>
8:00 – 9:00 am: Continental Breakfast & Check-in (Hesburgh Center Great Hall)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Welcoming keynotes and panels <\/strong>(Hesburgh Center Auditorium):
9:00 – 9:20 am: Welcome & Introduction
Kenneth Scheve<\/strong>, I.A. O\u2019Shaughnessy Dean, College of Arts & Letters, Professor of Political Science, University of Notre Dame
Michael J. Coppedge<\/strong>, Alfred C. DeCrane Jr. Professor of International Studies; Faculty Fellow, Kellogg Institute, University of Notre Dame

9:20 – 10:00 am: AIM4D Panel Session I : AIM-3D Public Portal: Official Launch Presentation
Dmitry Zaytsev<\/strong>, Associate Professor of Practice, Lucy Family Institute for Data & Society; Faculty Fellow, Kellogg Institute, University of Notre Dame

10:00 – 10:40 am: AIM4D Panel Session II : 10 years of V-Dem in Networks and Numbers
Valentina Kuskova<\/strong>, Professor of Practice, Lucy Family Institute for Data & Society, University of Notre Dame

10:40 – 10:50 am: Refreshment break (Hesburgh Center Great Hall)

10:50 – 12:00 pm: AIM4D Panel Session III : Roundtable with V-Dem PIs and PMs
Michael J. Coppedge<\/strong>, Alfred C. DeCrane Jr. Professor of International Studies; Faculty Fellow, Kellogg Institute, University of Notre Dame
Dan Pemstein<\/strong>, Professor, North Dakota State University
Steven Lloyd Wilson<\/strong>, Director, V-Dem Institute; Associate Professor, University of Gothenburg
John Gerring<\/strong>, Professor, University of Texas

12:00 – 1:20 pm : Closed Lunch for Panelists and Paper Presenters (Jenkins Nanovic Halls Room 1050)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Workshop I: Modeling and Forecasting Foundations<\/strong><\/strong> (Hesburgh Center Room C103):
1:20 – 1:40 pm: Tour de Table

1:40 – 2:25 pm: Andreas Beger*, Daniel Hill, Richard Morgan, Marina Nord, Marius Radean<\/strong>. Forecasting democracy when the past keeps changing<\/em>.
Discussants: Steven Wilson and Manuela Mu\u00f1oz

2:25 – 3:10 pm: Michael Coppedge, Dmitry Zaytsev, Valentina Kuskova*<\/strong>. AIM-3D: A Prototype Neural Network for Modeling Democratization: Causal Sequences in Long-Term Democratic Development<\/em>.
Discussants: Dan Pemstein and Steven Wilson

3:10 – 3:30 pm: Refreshment Break for Panelists and Paper Presenters (Hesburgh Center Great Hall)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Workshop II: Measurement and Data Construction<\/strong><\/strong> (Hesburgh Center Room C103):
3:30 – 4:15 pm: Matthew Charles Wilson*, Kelsey Martin-Morales and Gregory Nelson<\/strong>. From Text to Events: Deriving Indicators of Democratic Backsliding from Freedom House Reports<\/em>.
Discussants: John Gerring and Matthew Hauenstein

4:15 – 5:00 pm: Emmanuel Teitelbaum<\/strong>. A Country by Any Other Name. How Language Models Use Entity Knowledge in Rating Tasks<\/em>.
Discussants: Dan Pemstein and Miklos Sebok

5:00 – 5:45 pm: Daniel Quiroga-\u00c1ngel<\/strong>. Measuring Regimes Beyond Democracy: A Global Index of Constitutional Liberalism<\/em>.
Discussants: Humeyra Biricik and Valentina Kuskova

6:00 – 8:00 pm: 10-year V-Dem Celebration Dinner for Invited Guests, Panelists, and Paper Presenters (Jenkins Nanovic Halls, the Forum)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Saturday, October 17, 2026<\/strong>
8:30 – 9:10 am: Continental Breakfast for Panelists and Paper Presenters (Hesburgh Center Great Hall)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Workshop III: Early Signals and High-Frequency Indicators. Part 1<\/strong><\/strong> (Hesburgh Center Room C103):
9:10 – 9:55 am: Seraphine F. Maerz*, Ren\u00e9 Rej\u00f3n<\/strong>. Shifting words, shifting regimes? The normalization of illiberal discourse and democratic decline<\/em>.
Discussants: Cem Mert Dalli and Gabriel Cepaluni

9:55 – 10:40 am: Mikl\u00f3s Seb\u0151k<\/strong>. Forecasting Democratic Decline Through AI-Driven Detection of Illiberal Policy Frame Diffusion<\/em>.
Discussants: Matthew Wilson and Dmitry Zaytsev

Workshop III: Early Signals and High-Frequency Indicators. Part 2<\/strong> <\/strong>(Hesburgh Center Room C103):
<\/strong>10:40 – 11:25 pm: Humeyra Biricik<\/strong>. Executive Speeches as an Early-Warning Indicator of Democratic Backsliding<\/em>.
Discussants: Emmanuel Teitelbaum and Manuela Mu\u00f1oz

11:25 – 12:10 pm: Gabriel Cepaluni<\/strong>. The Machine Answers, but Does It Measure? Large Language Models and Democratic Institutions<\/em>.
Discussants: Daniel Quiroga-\u00c1ngel and Humeyra Biricik

12:10 – 1:10 pm: Closed Lunch for Panelists and Paper Presenters (Hesburgh Center Great Hall)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Workshop IV: Structural and Causal Dynamics<\/strong><\/strong> (Hesburgh Center Room C103):
1:10 – 1:55 pm: Hakan Mehmetcik<\/strong>. Democratic Diffusion: A Neural Causal Discovery Approach to Global Trade Networks<\/em>.
Discussants: Andreas Beger and Valentina Kuskova

1:55 – 2:40 pm: Cem Mert Dalli*, Svend-Erik Skaaning<\/strong>. Elite affective polarization in parliamentary speech: A cross-national measurement design<\/em>.
Discussants: Miklos Sebok and Valentina Kuskova

2:40 – 3:00 pm: Refreshment Break for Panelists and Paper Presenters (Hesburgh Center Great Hall)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Workshop V: Forecasting Applications and Institutional Extensions<\/strong> (Hesburgh Center Room C103):
3:00 – 3:45 pm: Hamid Ait El Caid*, Hassan Oukhouya<\/strong>. What does the future hold for democracy in North Africa? Forecasting democratic trajectories in North Africa using AI-driven methods<\/em>.
Discussants: Matthew Hauenstein and Emmanuel Teitelbaum

3:45 – 4:30 pm: Juan David Gelvez, Alejandro Cardiles, Eduard Mart\u0131nez-Gonzalez, Manuela Mu\u00f1oz*<\/strong>. How Predictable Is an Election? A Machine-Learning Approach to Electoral Behavior in Colombia<\/em>.
Discussants: Gabriel Cepaluni and Cem Mert Dalli

4:30 – 4:45 pm: Refreshment Break for Panelists and Paper Presenters (Hesburgh Center Great Hall)

4:45 – 5:30 pm: Matthew Hauenstein<\/strong>. Temporary Power-Sharing and Post-War Elections<\/em>.
Discussants: Matthew Wilson and Hakan Mehmetcik<\/p>\n\n\n\n

5:30 – 6:00 pm: Wrap-up<\/strong>: Big-Picture Implications<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

6:00 – 8:00 pm: Closing Dinner for Panelists and Paper Presenters (Jenkins Nanovic Halls, the Forum)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

AI-driven Modeling & Forecasting for Democratic Development and Decline (AIM4D)International Conference at the University of Notre DameOctober 15-17, 2026Conveners: Michael Coppedge and Dmitry Zaytsev Thursday, October 15, 2026before 6:00 pm: Arrival & Check-in for Panelists and Paper Presenters (the Morris Inn)6:00 – 8:00 pm: Welcome Dinner for Panelists and Paper Presenters (Hesburgh Center Great Hall)Note: general registrants can […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5174,"featured_media":0,"parent":126,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-438","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/aim3d\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/438","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/aim3d\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/aim3d\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/aim3d\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5174"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/aim3d\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=438"}],"version-history":[{"count":42,"href":"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/aim3d\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/438\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1239,"href":"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/aim3d\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/438\/revisions\/1239"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/aim3d\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/126"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/aim3d\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=438"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}