{"id":438,"date":"2025-12-17T00:23:36","date_gmt":"2025-12-17T00:23:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/aim3d\/?page_id=438"},"modified":"2026-08-21T21:01:56","modified_gmt":"2026-08-21T21:01:56","slug":"tentative-agenda-2","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/aim3d\/knowledge-network\/aim4d-conference\/tentative-agenda-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Program"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

AI-driven Modeling & Forecasting for Democratic Development and Decline (AIM4D)<\/strong>
International Conference at the University of Notre Dame<\/strong>
October 15-17, 2026<\/strong>
Conveners: Michael Coppedge<\/a> and Dmitry Zaytsev<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Day 0, Thursday, October 15, 2026<\/strong>
before 6:00 pm: Arrival & Check-in for Panelists and Paper Presenters
6:00 – 8:00 pm: Welcome Dinner for Panelists and Paper Presenters
Note, general registrants can check-in on Friday<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Day 1, Friday, October 16, 2026<\/strong>
8:00 – 9:00 am: Continental Breakfast & Check-in (Hesburgh Center Great Hall)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Welcoming keynotes and panels (Hesburgh Center Auditorium):<\/strong>
9:00 – 9:20 am: Welcome & Introduction
9:20 – 10:00 am: AIM4D Panel Session I : AIM-3D Public Portal: Official Launch Presentation
10:00 – 10:40 am: AIM4D Panel Session II : 10 years of V-Dem in Networks and Numbers
10:40 – 10:50 am: Refreshment break (Hesburgh Center Great Hall)
10:50 – 12:00 pm: AIM4D Panel Session III : Roundtable with V-Dem PIs and PMs
12:00 – 1:20 pm : Closed Lunch for Panelists and Paper Presenters<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Workshop I: Modeling and Forecasting Foundations<\/strong><\/strong>
1:20 – 1:40 pm: Tour de Table
1:40 – 2:20 pm: Andreas Beger*, Rick Morgan<\/strong>. Forecasting Shifts in Democratic Governance: A Review of the Democratic Space Barometer Project<\/em>
2:20 – 3:00 pm: Michael Coppedge*, Dmitry Zaytsev, Valentina Kuskova<\/strong>. AIM-3D: A Prototype Neural Network for Modeling Democratization: Causal Sequences in Long-Term Democratic Development<\/em>
3:00 – 3:40 pm: Brandon Yee, Jacob Crainic*, Krishna Sharma<\/strong>. Democratic Factor Betas, Network Contagion, and Early Warning: A Five-Stage Econometric-Causal Framework for Forecasting Democratic Decline<\/em>
3:40 – 4:00 pm: Refreshment Break for Panelists and Paper Presenters<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Workshop II: Measurement and Data Construction<\/strong><\/strong>
4:00 – 4:40 pm: Matthew Charles Wilson*, Kelsey Martin-Morales and Gregory Nelson<\/strong>. From Text to Events: Turning Freedom House Reports into Evidence of Democratization and Democratic Backsliding<\/em>
4:40 – 5:20 pm: Emmanuel Teitelbaum, Seraphine Maerz, Michael Magid*<\/strong>. Augmenting Expert Judgment: Large Language Models and V-Dem Democracy Measurement<\/em>
5:20 – 6:00 pm: Daniel Quiroga-\u00c1ngel<\/strong>. Measuring Regimes Beyond Democracy: A Global Measure of Effective Liberalism<\/em>
6:00 – 8:00 pm: 10-year V-Dem Celebration Dinner for Invited Guests, Panelists, and Paper Presenters<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Day 2, Saturday, October 17, 2026<\/strong>
8:00 – 8:30 am: Continental Breakfast for Panelists and Paper Presenters<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Workshop III: Early Signals and High-Frequency Indicators. Part 1<\/strong><\/strong>
8:30 – 9:10 am: Seraphine F. Maerz<\/strong>. Shifting words, shifting regimes: Public discourse and institutional change<\/em>
9:10 – 9:50 am: Mikl\u00f3s Seb\u0151k<\/strong>. Forecasting Democratic Decline Through AI-Driven Detection of Illiberal Policy Frame Diffusion<\/em>
9:50 – 10:30 am: Mario Pino Flores<\/strong>. Can Political Text Predict Democratic Backsliding? Evidence from Chile and Brazil<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Workshop III: Early Signals and High-Frequency Indicators. Part 2<\/strong>
<\/strong>10:30 – 11:00 pm: Humeyra Biricik<\/strong>. Measuring Democratic Backsliding Through Political Speech<\/em>
11:10 – 11:50 pm: Gabriel Cepaluni<\/strong>. LLMs as Standardized Sensors of Democratic Stress: Real-Time Measurement of the Normative Information Environment<\/em>
11:50 – 1:00 pm: Closed Lunch for Panelists and Paper Presenters<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Workshop IV: Structural and Causal Dynamics<\/strong><\/strong>
1:00 – 1:40 pm: Hakan Mehmetcik<\/strong>. Democratic Diffusion: A Neural Causal Discovery Approach to Global Trade Networks<\/em>
1:40 – 2:20 pm: Cem Mert Dalli*, Svend-Erik Skaaning<\/strong>. Estimating Elite Affective Polarization from Parliamentary Speeches: Cross-National Evidence from Five European Legislatures<\/em>
2:20 – 2:40 pm: Refreshment Break for Panelists and Paper Presenters<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Workshop V: Forecasting Applications and Institutional Extensions<\/strong>
2:40 – 3:20 pm: Praval Sharma, Krishna Sharma*<\/strong>. Forecasting Democratic Stress: A Spatio-Temporal Machine Learning Framework for Nepal\u2019s Political Transition<\/em>
3:20 – 4:00 pm: Hamid Ait El Caid*, Hassan Oukhouya<\/strong>. What does the future hold for democracy in North Africa? forecasting democratic trajectories in North Africa using AI-driven methods<\/em>
4:00 – 4:20 pm: Refreshment Break for Panelists and Paper Presenters
4:20 – 5:00 pm: Juan David Gelvez, Eduard Martinez, Manuela Mu\u00f1oz*, Laura Sinisterra<\/strong>. Persistent Cleavages and Electoral Dynamics in Democratic Systems: Evidence from Colombia<\/em>
5:00 – 5:40 pm: Matthew Hauenstein<\/strong>. Temporary Power-Sharing and Post-War Elections<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

5:40 – 6:00 pm: Wrap-up<\/strong>: Big-Picture Implications<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

6:00 – 8:00 pm: Closing Dinner for Panelists and Paper Presenters<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

AI-driven Modeling & Forecasting for Democratic Development and Decline (AIM4D)International Conference at the University of Notre DameOctober 15-17, 2026Conveners: Michael Coppedge and Dmitry Zaytsev Day 0, Thursday, October 15, 2026before 6:00 pm: Arrival & Check-in for Panelists and Paper Presenters6:00 – 8:00 pm: Welcome Dinner for Panelists and Paper PresentersNote, general registrants can check-in on Friday Day 1, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5174,"featured_media":0,"parent":126,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-438","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/aim3d\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/438","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/aim3d\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/aim3d\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/aim3d\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5174"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/aim3d\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=438"}],"version-history":[{"count":15,"href":"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/aim3d\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/438\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1056,"href":"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/aim3d\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/438\/revisions\/1056"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/aim3d\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/126"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/aim3d\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=438"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}