{"id":779,"date":"2026-04-28T20:23:13","date_gmt":"2026-04-28T20:23:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/aim3d\/?page_id=779"},"modified":"2026-10-12T19:41:30","modified_gmt":"2026-10-12T19:41:30","slug":"publications","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/aim3d\/publications\/","title":{"rendered":"Publications"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8f761849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:15%\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/aim3d\/files\/2026\/10\/NeurlPS-1024x576.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1228\" srcset=\"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/aim3d\/files\/2026\/10\/NeurlPS-1024x576.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/aim3d\/files\/2026\/10\/NeurlPS-300x169.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/aim3d\/files\/2026\/10\/NeurlPS-767x431.jpeg 767w, https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/aim3d\/files\/2026\/10\/NeurlPS.jpeg 1295w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:85%\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Zaytsev, D., Kuskova, V., &amp; Coppedge, M. (2026). <strong>Stability-Constrained Regime-Aware Forecasting for Heterogeneous Panel Time Series<\/strong>. <a href=\"https:\/\/neurips.cc\/\"><em>NeurIPS 2026<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8f761849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:15%\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"289\" height=\"94\" src=\"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/aim3d\/files\/2026\/10\/ICML-3.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1129\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:85%\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kuskova, V., Zaytsev, D., Coppedge, M. (2026). <strong>Function-Valued Causal Influence in Nonlinear Time Series<\/strong>. <em>Proceedings of the 43rd International Conference on Machine Learning<\/em>, in <a href=\"https:\/\/proceedings.mlr.press\/v306\/kuskova26a.html\"><em>Proceedings of Machine Learning Research 306: 61873\u201361898<\/em><\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/arxiv.org\/abs\/2605.26408\"><em>arXiv preprint arXiv:2605.26408<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8f761849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:15%\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"412\" height=\"157\" src=\"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/aim3d\/files\/2026\/06\/KDD26.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-886\" srcset=\"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/aim3d\/files\/2026\/06\/KDD26.jpeg 412w, https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/aim3d\/files\/2026\/06\/KDD26-300x114.jpeg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 412px) 100vw, 412px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:85%\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Zaytsev, D., Kuskova, V., &amp; Coppedge, M. (2026). <strong>From Causal Discovery to Dynamic Causal Inference in Neural Time Series<\/strong>. In <em><a href=\"https:\/\/dl.acm.org\/doi\/abs\/10.1145\/3770855.3818956\">Proceedings of the 32nd ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (KDD 2026)<\/a><\/em> and <a href=\"https:\/\/arxiv.org\/abs\/2603.20980\"><em>arXiv preprint arXiv:2603.20980<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8f761849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:15%\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"410\" height=\"402\" src=\"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/aim3d\/files\/2026\/10\/FLAIRS.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1132\" srcset=\"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/aim3d\/files\/2026\/10\/FLAIRS.png 410w, https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/aim3d\/files\/2026\/10\/FLAIRS-300x294.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 410px) 100vw, 410px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:85%\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kuskova, V., Zaytsev, D., &amp; Coppedge, M. (2026). <strong>Beyond Coefficients: Forecast-Necessity Testing for Interpretable Causal Discovery in Nonlinear Time-Series Models<\/strong>.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/journals.flvc.org\/FLAIRS\/article\/view\/141791\"><em>The International FLAIRS Conference Proceedings<\/em>,&nbsp;<em>39<\/em>(1)<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/arxiv.org\/abs\/2604.18751\"><em>arXiv preprint arXiv: 2604.18751<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8f761849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:15%\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"737\" height=\"935\" src=\"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/aim3d\/files\/2026\/04\/RQD-2026.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-794\" style=\"width:100px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/aim3d\/files\/2026\/04\/RQD-2026.png 737w, https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/aim3d\/files\/2026\/04\/RQD-2026-236x300.png 236w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 737px) 100vw, 737px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:85%\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Zaytsev, D., Kuskova, V., &amp; Coppedge, M. (2026). <strong>Trajectory-Aware Reliability Modeling of Democratic Systems<\/strong>. The 31st ISSAT International Conference on Reliability &amp; Quality in Design Proceedings and <em><a href=\"https:\/\/arxiv.org\/abs\/2604.20127\">arXiv preprint arXiv:2604.20127<\/a><\/em>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8f761849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:15%\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"335\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/aim3d\/files\/2026\/10\/arxiv2-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1136\" style=\"aspect-ratio:2.2338568935427574\" srcset=\"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/aim3d\/files\/2026\/10\/arxiv2-1.png 335w, https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/aim3d\/files\/2026\/10\/arxiv2-1-300x134.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 335px) 100vw, 335px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:85%\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Coppedge, M., Zaytsev, D., &amp; Kuskova, V. (2026). <strong>Forecast-Necessary Causal Discovery for Nonlinear Political Panel Data: Feedback, Functional Form, and the Dynamics of Democratization<\/strong>. <a href=\"https:\/\/arxiv.org\/abs\/2609.34115\"><em>arXiv preprint arXiv:2609.34115<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8f761849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:15%\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-style-default\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"335\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/aim3d\/files\/2026\/10\/arxiv2-2.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1138\" srcset=\"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/aim3d\/files\/2026\/10\/arxiv2-2.png 335w, https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/aim3d\/files\/2026\/10\/arxiv2-2-300x134.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 335px) 100vw, 335px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:85%\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kuskova, V., Zaytsev, D., &amp; Coppedge, M. (2026). <strong>When Are Neural Interaction Discoveries Real? Identifiability, Recoverability, and a Pre-Fit Diagnostic<\/strong>. <a href=\"https:\/\/arxiv.org\/pdf\/2606.08390\"><em>arXiv preprint arXiv:2606.08390<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8f761849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:15%\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"335\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/aim3d\/files\/2026\/06\/arxiv2-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-968\" srcset=\"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/aim3d\/files\/2026\/06\/arxiv2-1.png 335w, https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/aim3d\/files\/2026\/06\/arxiv2-1-300x134.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 335px) 100vw, 335px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:85%\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kuskova, V., Zaytsev, D., &amp; Coppedge, M. (2026). <strong>Trajectory-Aware Node Contributions and the Limits of Static Controllability<\/strong>. <a href=\"https:\/\/arxiv.org\/pdf\/2606.03067\"><em>arXiv preprint arXiv:2606.03067<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Zaytsev, D., Kuskova, V., &amp; Coppedge, M. (2026). Stability-Constrained Regime-Aware Forecasting for Heterogeneous Panel Time Series. NeurIPS 2026. Kuskova, V., Zaytsev, D., Coppedge, M. (2026). Function-Valued Causal Influence in Nonlinear Time Series. Proceedings of the 43rd International Conference on Machine Learning, in Proceedings of Machine Learning Research 306: 61873\u201361898 and arXiv preprint arXiv:2605.26408. Zaytsev, D., [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5174,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-779","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/aim3d\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/779","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/aim3d\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/aim3d\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/aim3d\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5174"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/aim3d\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=779"}],"version-history":[{"count":44,"href":"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/aim3d\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/779\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1234,"href":"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/aim3d\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/779\/revisions\/1234"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/aim3d\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=779"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}