Research

Working Papers

• “Uncertainty and Change: Survey Evidence of Firms’ Subjective Beliefs”, joint with K. Carstensen, S. Lautenbacher and M. Schneider. See also NBER WP 29430, CEPR DP 16689 and CESIFO WP 9394. Featured by VoxEU.
• “A Temporary VAT Cut as Unconventional Fiscal Policy”, joint with B. Born, O. Goldfayn-Frank, G. Kocharkov, R. Lütticke and M. Weber. See also NBER WP 29442, CEPR DP 16690 and CESIFOWP 9399. Featured by the Becker Friedman Institute, FAZ, SZ, Business Insider, VoxEU, Ökonomenstimme and the NBER Digest. 
• “Monopsony Makes Firms not only Small but also Unproductive: Why East Germany has not Converged”, joint with C. Bayer, H. Stüber and F. Wellschmied. See also CEPR DP 17302, IZA DP 15293 and CESIFO WP 9751. Featured on VoxEU and Ökonomenstimme.
• “Uncertainty is More Than Risk – Survey Evidence on Knightian and Bayesian Firms”, joint with K. Carstensen, S. Lautenbacher and M. Schneider.
• “The Ins and Arounds in the U.S. Housing Market”, joint with D. Cooper. See also CEPR DP 10041. Featured in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York blog Liberty Street Economics.
• “Business Cycles and Endogenous Uncertainty”, joint with G. Moscarini.
• “Pandemic Consumption”, joint with C. Bayer and M. Kornejew. See also CEPR DP18120 and CESIFO WP 10397. Featured on VoxEU.

Work in Progress

• “The Nature of Capital Expenditures over the Business Cycle”, joint with P. Zorn.
• “Firm Expectations and Uncertainty in Normal Times and Times of Crisis”, joint with K. Carstensen, M. Menkhoff and M. Schneider.

Permanent Working Papers

• “Respekt vor unterschiedlichen Ausgangsbedingungen: Horizontale Fairness in die CO2-Bepreisung bringen”, joint with C. Bayer.  ECONtribute Policy Brief No. 054, October 2023. Featured on Focus online.
• “Wie es zu schaffen ist”, joint with D. Baqaee, C. Bayer, M. Kuhn, A. Löschel, B. McWilliams, B. Moll, A. Peichl, K. Pittel, M. Schularick, G. Zachmann.  ECONtribute Policy Brief No. 034, August 2022.
• “Bericht zur Datenqualität der Sonderbefragung zum Konsum privater Haushalte 2020”, joint with C. Bayer and M. Kornejew. Technical working paper (in German), 2021
• “Understanding the Jobless Recoveries After 1991 and 2001”.

Published Articles

• “What if? The macroeconomic and distributional effects for Germany of a stop of energy imports from Russia”, joint with D. Baqaee, C. Bayer, M. Kuhn, A. Löschel, B. Moll, A. Peichl, K. Pittel, M. Schularick,  Economica, forthcoming. See also: ECONtribute Policy Brief No. 028, March 2022.
• “Funktionen von Staatsschulden und Reform der Schuldenbremse”. ifo Schnelldienst, 2/2024, 19-22.
• “Zeitgespräch: Makrodaten: Die amtliche Statistik stärken”, joint with A. Balleer, Z. Enders, N. Garnadt, H. Stüber. Wirtschaftsdienst 11/2023, 741-745. Invited contribution. Previous versions: “Für einen besseren Datenzugang: Stellungnahme der Arbeitsgruppe makroökonomische Daten“, working paper of the Verein für Socialpolitik. And: “Für einen besseren Datenzugang im Bereich Makroökonomik. Stellungnahme aus dem Verein für Socialpolitik.“ RatSWD Working Paper 283/2023. Berlin. Rat für Sozial- und Wirtschaftsdaten (RatSWD).
• “The Quantitative Expectations Module of the ifo Business Cycle Survey”, joint with K. Carstensen, M. Menkhoff and M. Schneider. In: S. Sauer, M. Schasching and K. Wohlrabe (2023): “Handbook of ifo Surveys”, ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung 100, 209-217. Invited Contribution.
• “Unconventional Fiscal Policy at Work”, joint with B. Born, O. Goldfayn-Frank, G. Kocharkov, R. Lütticke and M. Weber, AEA Papers & Proceedings (2023), 113, 61-64.
• “Firms and Collective Reputation: a Study of the Volkswagen Emissions Scandal”,  joint with G. Ehrlich, Y. Fan, D. Ruzic and B. Leard, Journal of the European Economic Association (2023), Volume 21, Issue 2, 484-525. Formerly circulating as NBER WP 26117, CEPR DP 12504, and CESIFO WP 6805. Notre Dame press release. University of Michigan press release. INSEAD press release. Featured on Marginal Revolution, VoxEU, Spiegel Online, the Insurance Journal, Market Business News, Ökonomenstimme and The Economist.
• “Why it is imperative to help Ukraine.”In Y. Gorodnichenko and V. Rashkovan (2023): “Supporting Ukraine: More critical than ever.” CEPR Press. Invited contribution.
• “Kinderbonuskonsum” (in German), joint with C. Bayer and M. Kornejew. Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, 2022, 23(4), 281-298.
• “Firm Surveys“, joint with K. Carstensen. In: Bachmann, R., Topa, G., and van der Klaauw, W., eds., (2022): Handbook of Economic Expectations, 33-70. Elsevier. 
• “Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks Using the Central Bank’s Information Set”, joint with I. Gödl-Hanisch and E. Sims, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 145, Article 104555.  Formerly circulating as NBER WP 29572 and CEPR DP 16836.
• “Monopsone machen Unternehmen nicht nur klein, sondern auch unproduktiv: Warum die Wirtschaft Ostdeutschlands nicht konvergiert ist“, joint with C. Bayer, H. Stüber and F. Wellschmied, ifo Dresden berichtet, 5/2022, 9-12.
• “Umsatzunsicherheit und Umsatzerwartungen deutscher Firmen zur Zeit des Ukraine-Kriegs: Gas und Gasausfall spielen eine eher geringe Rolle”, joint with K. Carstensen. M. Menkoff and M. Schneider. ifo Schnelldienst, 6/2022.
• “Bestimmungsfaktoren von subjektiver Unsicherheit auf der Firmenebene”, joint with K. Carstensen and M. Schneider. ifo Schnelldienst, 6/2021 (16 June 2021), 57-62.
• “Bidens Fiskalpolitik – ein Vorbild für Deutschland?” (in German), Wirtschaftsdienst (2021/06), 414-417. Invited contribution.
• “Worker Churn in the Cross-Section and Over Time: New Evidence from Germany”, joint with C. Bayer, C. Merkl, S. Seth, H. Stüber and F. Wellschmied. Journal of Monetary Economics (2021), Vol. 117, 781-797.Formerly circulating as CEPR DP 12343 and CESIFO WP 6702. Featured on VoxEU and Ökonomenstimme and in the German Nationale Produktivitätsbericht 2021 and The Economist.
• “Unsicherheit und Beschäftigungsabbau in der Coronakrise” (in German), joint with K. Carstensen, S. Lautenbacher. and M. Schneider. ifo Schnelldienst Digital 9/2020 (26 May 2020).
• “The Welfare and Distributional Effects of Fiscal Volatility: a Quantitative Evaluation”, joint with J. Bai, M. Lee and F. Zhang, Review of Economic Dynamics (2020), Vol. 38, 127-153. Formerly circulating as CEPR DP 12384.
• “What Drives Aggregate Investment? Evidence from German Survey Data”, joint with P. Zorn, invited contribution to a special edition of the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control on “Integrating Disaggregate Data and Macroeconomic Models” (2020), Vol. 115, Article 103873. Formerly circulating as NBER-WP 18990, CEPR DP 12710 and CESIFO WP 4218. 
• “Systematic Monetary Policy and the Macroeconomic Effects of Shifts in Loan-to-Value Ratios”, joint with S. Rüth, International Economic Review (2020), Vol. 61 (2), 503-530. Formerly circulating as CEPR DP 12024 and CESIFO WP 6458.
• “Ordoliberalism from the Perspective of a U.S.-trained Macroeconomist”, in editors: Malte Dold and Tim Krieger, “Ordoliberalism and European Economic Policy: Between Realpolitik and Economic Utopia.“ Routledge Studies in the History of Economics, 2019, 108-122. Invited contribution.
• “Time-Varying Business Volatility and the Price Setting of Firms“, joint with B. Born, S. Elstner, C. Grimme, Journal of Monetary Economics (2019), Vol. 101, 82-99. Formerly circulating as NBER-WP 19180 and CEPR DP 9702. Awarded with the Science Prize 2019 by the Society for the Promotion of Economic Research (Freunde des ifo Instituts) e.V. Award for Special Scientific Achievements.
• “Erfolge und Probleme der modernen (Mainstream-)Makroökonomik“, List Forum für Wirtschafts- und Finanzpolitik, (2019), Vol. 44(4), 451-493. Also there: “Erfolge und Probleme der modernen (Mainstream-)Makroökonomik: Replik zum Kommentar von Peter Spahn“, 503-506. Invited contribution.
• “Zur aktuellen Pluralismusdebatte in der Ökonomik: Ansichten eines wohlwollenden Pluralismusskeptikers” (in German), Wirtschaftsdienst (2017/12), 843-846. Invited contribution. Featured on the Zeit Online Blog Herdentrieb.
• “Surprise, Surprise – Measuring Firm-Level Investment Innovations”, joint with S. Elstner and A. Hristov, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (2017), Vol. 83, 107-148. Formerly circulating as CEPR DP 9894.
• “Sola Protestantism in Economics”, in: Frey, B. and D. Iselin: “Economic Ideas You Should Forget”, 5-7, 2017. Invited contribution.
• “Lumpy Investment, Lumpy Inventories”, joint with L. Ma,  Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (2016), Vol. 48(5), 821-855, lead article. Formerly circulating as NBER-WP 17924.
• “Firm Optimism and Pessimism”, joint with S. Elstner, European Economic Review (2015), Vol. 79, 297-325.  Formerly circulating as NBER-WP 18989 and CESIFO WP 4176.
• “Inflation Expectations and Readiness to Spend: Cross-Sectional Evidence”, joint with T. Berg and E. Sims, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy (2015), Vol. 7(1), 1-35, lead article. Featured in The American Conservative, the Neue Züricher Zeitung (NZZ) John Cochrane’s blog the Grumpy Economist, and in the Chicago Booth Review here and here. Presented to the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland during a special advisory meeting on inflation and inflation expectations. Formerly circulating as NBER WP 17958.
• “Investment Dispersion and the Business Cycle”, joint with C. Bayer, American Economic Review (2014), Vol. 104(4), 1392-1416. Formerly circulating as NBER WP 16861 and as CESIFO WP 2810: “The Cross-section of Firms over the Business Cycle: New Facts and a DSGE Exploration”.
• “‘Wait-and-See‘ Business Cycles?”, joint with C. Bayer, Journal of Monetary Economics (2013), Vol. 60(6), 704-719 . Formerly circulating as NBER WP 16862: “Uncertainty Business Cycles – Really?” and as CESIFO WP 2844: “Firm-specific Productivity Risk over the Business Cycle: Facts and Aggregate Implications”.
• “Public Consumption over the Business Cycle”, joint with J. Bai, Quantitative Economics (2013), 4, 417-451. Discussed by the Economic Logician. Formerly circulating as NBER WP 17230.
• “Aggregate Implications of Lumpy Investment: New Evidence and a DSGE Model”, joint with R. Caballero and E. Engel, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics (2013), Vol. 5(4), 29-67. Formerly circulating as NBER WP 12336.
• “Politico-economic Inequality and the Comovement of Government Purchases”, joint with J. Bai, Review of Economic Dynamics (2013), Vol. 16(4), 565-580, lead article.  Formerly circulating as NBER WP 16247: “Government Purchases over the Business Cycle: the Role of Economic and Political Inequality”.
• “Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data”, joint with S. Elstner and E. Sims, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics (2013), Vol. 5(2), 217-249. Formerly circulating as NBER WP 16143. Selected for the NBER Digest. Featured in the Wall Street Journal Blog, The Atlantic and the Washington Post. Used in the official Quarterly Report on the Euro Area (II/2013) by the European Commission, the European Business Cycle Indicators (2013, 3rd quarter issue) by the European Commission, the 2013 IMF Country Report for Germany and the 2013/2014 Report by the German Council of Economic Advisors (Sachverständigenrat).
• “Confidence and the Transmission of Government Spending Shocks”, joint with E. Sims, Journal of Monetary Economics (2012), Vol. 59(3), 235-249. Formerly circulating as NBER WP 17063. Featured in The Economist under The Weekly Papers and on Bloomberg View: “The Myth of Austerity and Growth.“
• “Zum Neueren Methodenstreit – Rückblick und Ausblick” (in German), in: Caspari, V. and B. Schefold: “Wohin steuert die ökonomische Wissenschaft?”, 259-268, 2011. Invited contribution.
• “Testable Implications of Coalitional Rationality”, Economics Letters (2006), Vol. 93, 101-105.
• “Testable Implications of Pareto Efficiency and Individual Rationality”, Economic Theory (2006), 29/3, November, 489-504, lead article.
• “Das Afriat-Theorem und seine Anwendung in der allgemeinen Gleichgewichtstheorie: das starke Axiom des offenbarten Gleichgewichts” (in German), WIST (2005/3), 151-154.
• “Rationalizing Allocation Data – a Nonparametric Walrasian Theory, when Prices are absent or Non-Walrasian”, Journal of Mathematical Economics (2004), 40(3-4), 271-295.