Understanding household evacuation preference for future hurricanes amid the COVID-19 pandemic in Puerto Rico
Meng, S.*, Halim, N., Karra, M. & Mozumder, P. (2024). Understanding Household Evacuation Preferences During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Puerto Rico. Safety Science, 171: 106405. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2023.106405
The added threat from the COVID-19 pandemic created a complex dilemma for households that were also facing evacuation decisions during natural disasters. This paper characterized household concerns and evacuation preferences in the context of both hurricanes and pandemic risks. We conducted a survey of 504 households across 119 different zip code areas in Puerto Rico impacted by Hurricane Maria (2017). The households were asked to make a choice between staying isolated at home or evacuating with or without isolation in the event of a future hurricane threat during a pandemic. Our findings revealed that households, in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, expressed greater concern about the risks associated with a pandemic compared to those related to hurricanes, and that there was a risk-risk trade-off when making the critical evacuation decision. In addition to hurricane-related concerns, past evacuation experiences, and the consideration of evacuation costs, we found that evacuation preferences were heterogeneous across age, gender, and ethnic groups, and were also driven by perceptions of infection risks and attitudes towards social distancing. Our research aimed to provide valuable insights to help develop effective responses and preparations for coastal hurricanes that consider the complexities of multiple hazards and health risks.
Departure Timing Preference During Extreme Weather Events: Evidence from Hurricane Evacuation Behavior
Jiang, F., Meng, S*., Halim, N. & Mozumder, P. (2022) Departure Timing Preference during Extreme Weather Events: Evidence from Hurricane Evacuation Behavior. Transportation Research Record, 2676 (5): 358-372 https://doi.org/10.1177%2F03611981211066901
Hurricane evacuation has become an increasingly complicated activity in the U.S. as it involves moving many people who live along the Atlantic coast and Gulf coast within a very limited time. A good deal of research has been conducted on hurricane evacuation, but only a limited number of studies have looked into the timing aspect of evacuation. This paper intends to contribute to the literature on evacuation timing decisions by investigating what factors influence the time preference at the household level. Two hurricane survey data sets were used to analyze household evacuation behaviors across the Gulf coast as well as the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic coast in a comparative perspective. Using the Heckman selection model, we examined various factors identified in the literature on the two possible outcomes (evacuation and early evacuation). We found that the most important determinants of evacuation were prior evacuation experience, evacuation orders, and risk perceptions, while the most important determinants of early evacuation were prior evacuation experiences, days spent at the evacuation destination, and the cost of evacuation. Socioeconomic factors also influenced the two decisions but differently. These results provide implications for future hurricane evacuation planning and for improving emergency management practices.
Keywords sustainability and resilience, transportation systems resilience, disaster response, recovery, and business continuity, emergency evacuation, natural hazards and extreme weather events
Estimating Willingness to Pay and Costs Associated with Hurricane Evacuation
Jiang, F., Meng, S*., Khan, M., Halim, N. & Mozumder, P. (2023) Estimating Willingness to Pay and Costs Associated with Hurricane Evacuation. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment,121:103826 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2023.103826
While a growing number of studies have explored evacuation expenditure for more effective evacuation planning and emergency management, few have investigated the public preferences regarding hurricane evacuation behavior and the cost of evacuation. This paper presents an empirical analysis of hurricane evacuation decisions, using both revealed preference (RP) and stated preference (SP) evacuation expenditure data from Texas residents affected by Hurricane Ike. Furthermore, we have developed a methodology framework based on utility maximization theory and the lifecycle consumption model. This approach allows us to estimate the lower bound of individuals’ willingness to pay (WTP) to mitigate hurricane risks and calculate the associated cost-of-evacuation under both voluntary and mandatory evacuation orders. The study was carried out from a transportation cost perspective and included the expenditure of transportation, food, and lodging during hurricane evacuation. The findings provide policy implications for emergency management agencies in coastal communities in terms of hurricane evacuation planning and strengthening disaster management practices in the future.
Keywords Cost-of-Evacuation; Emergency Management; Hurricane; Natural Hazards; Transportation Cost; Willingness to Pay (WTP)
Understanding Non-Evacuation Behavior in Urban Areas During Major Hurricanes
Evacuation behaviors are complex and thus, require continued exploration, especially those pertaining to evacuation timing. The main goal of the study is to figure out the reasons behind low evacuation rate for Hurricane Sandy. Specifically, why do some people stay put, even after mandatory evacuation orders have been issued? Why do others leave when the sun is still shining and the skies are still blue? Employing household survey data with their geospatial information, we hope to 1) identify reasons behind evacuation resistance; 2) estimate the key factor of the Sandy evacuation; 3) identify types of people most/least likely to evacuate; 4) provide implications for public education and future evacuations.