{"id":110,"date":"2020-06-11T14:04:15","date_gmt":"2020-06-11T18:04:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/world-politics-fall-2020\/?page_id=110"},"modified":"2020-11-08T17:30:53","modified_gmt":"2020-11-08T22:30:53","slug":"steven-pinker-thinks-the-future-is-looking-bright","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/world-politics-fall-2020\/steven-pinker-thinks-the-future-is-looking-bright\/","title":{"rendered":"Steven Pinker Thinks the Future Is Looking Bright"},"content":{"rendered":"<header class=\"entry-header\">\n<h1 class=\"entry-title\"><span style=\"font-size: 16px;font-weight: 400\">The Harvard psychologist says he is no starry-eyed optimist. It\u2019s just that the data don\u2019t lie.<\/span><\/h1>\n<\/header>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<header class=\"css-17wmaoh e345g291\">\n<div class=\"css-79elbk ehw59r11\">\n<div class=\"css-1ynpnia ehw59r18\">\n<div class=\"css-1c1icqh ehw59r19\">\n<div class=\"css-10i3z6d ehw59r15\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-1a48zt4 ehw59r111\">\n<figure class=\"sizeMedium layoutHorizontal css-z723vq toneFeature\" role=\"group\">\n<div class=\"css-bsn42l\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"css-11cwn6f\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2018\/11\/20\/science\/20SCI-CONVERSATION\/20SCI-CONVERSATION-articleLarge.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp&amp;disable=upscale\" alt=\"\"><\/div><figcaption class=\"css-17ai7jg emkp2hg0\"><span class=\"css-8i9d0s e1olku6u0\">Steven Pinker, a cognitive psychologist at Harvard University, maintains that by objective measures the world is heading in the right direction.&nbsp;<\/span><span class=\"emkp2hg2 css-1nwzsjy e18m0s9i0\"><span class=\"css-1ly73wi e1afaoz0\">Credit<\/span><span class=\"css-1dv1kvn\">Credit<\/span>Kayana Szymczak for The New York Times<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-30n6iy e345g290\">\n<div class=\"css-acwcvw\">\n<div class=\"css-17xsp6v e1hs04dy0\">\n<div class=\"css-1baulvz\">\n<p class=\"css-16vrk19 e1x1pwtg1\">By&nbsp;<span class=\"css-1baulvz\">Karen Weintraub,&nbsp;<em>New York Times,&nbsp;<\/em><\/span>Nov. 19, 2018<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<section class=\"css-1572rug\">\n<div class=\"css-u5vfum StoryBodyCompanionColumn\">\n<div class=\"css-4w7y5l\">\n<p class=\"css-1ygdjhk e2kc3sl0\">Steven Pinker, a cognitive psychologist at Harvard,&nbsp;has been known to take&nbsp;provocative positions. He has argued that women are intrinsically different from men, that we are more driven by our genes than academics like to acknowledge, and that society is getting less violent over time \u2014 despite the mass shootings and other atrocities we hear about daily.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1ygdjhk e2kc3sl0\">The thesis of his latest book, \u201cEnlightenment Now,\u201d is that life on Earth is improving. By every major measure of human well-being, from personal safety to longevity to economic security to happiness, people everywhere are far better off today than they were before the start of the Enlightenment in the 17th century.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1ygdjhk e2kc3sl0\">I sat down with Dr. Pinker to talk about how science has made life better, and what humanity needs to do to keep the good times rolling. This is an edited and condensed version of our conversation.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"link-6af421ba\" class=\"css-sbs9ef eqpy7av0\">What first gave you the idea that the world was getting better?<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-1ygdjhk e2kc3sl0\">I stumbled across data showing that violence had declined over the course of history. The homicide rate in England was 50 times higher in the 14th century than it is today.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-u5vfum StoryBodyCompanionColumn\">\n<div class=\"css-4w7y5l\">\n<h2 id=\"link-627c1ab4\" class=\"css-sbs9ef eqpy7av0\">Were you surprised?<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-1ygdjhk e2kc3sl0\">Like any other news reader, I just assumed that there was as much mayhem as ever. It\u2019s only when you plot it over time, taking into account all the people who don\u2019t get murdered or raped, that you can see the trends.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"link-321fdf8a\" class=\"css-sbs9ef eqpy7av0\">And these trends extend to other aspects of life?<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-1ygdjhk e2kc3sl0\">It\u2019s not just in violence that one sees progress, but in poverty, in illiteracy, in access to small luxuries like beer or televisions. The percentage of the world getting an education, in gender parity in education \u2014 girls are going to school all over the world. Even in Afghanistan and Pakistan, the world\u2019s most retrograde countries, the rate of female education has increased.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1ygdjhk e2kc3sl0\">It was an epiphany from seeing graphs of human improvement that changed my view of the overall course of history: that progress is a demonstrable fact. It\u2019s not a matter of seeing the glass as half full. It\u2019s not a matter of being an optimist. It\u2019s a fact that very few people know about.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"link-6104f4e3\" class=\"css-sbs9ef eqpy7av0\">What\u2019s behind all this good news?<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-1ygdjhk e2kc3sl0\">The most overarching explanation would be that the Enlightenment worked. The idea that if we \u2014 we being humanity \u2014 set ourselves the goal of improving well-being, if we try to figure out how the world works using reason and science, every once in a while we can succeed.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"link-255c1586\" class=\"css-sbs9ef eqpy7av0\">You have argued that there is such a thing as human nature. Do you think we can transcend it?<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-1ygdjhk e2kc3sl0\">Part of human nature allows us to control the other part of our human nature. Even though humans tend to be unreasonable, it can\u2019t be the case that we\u2019re incapable of reason \u2014 otherwise, you\u2019d never be able to make the argument that we\u2019re being unreasonable. Even if we tend to backslide to irrationality, that doesn\u2019t mean we should indulge that when we are deliberating how to run a society.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-u5vfum StoryBodyCompanionColumn\">\n<div class=\"css-4w7y5l\">\n<h2 id=\"link-2370bd7f\" class=\"css-sbs9ef eqpy7av0\">It sounds as if there\u2019s a political dimension to what you\u2019re arguing. Are you running for office anytime soon?<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-1ygdjhk e2kc3sl0\">No! I was surprised by how much interest there\u2019s been from centrist politicians, who are desperate for a coherent narrative to defend centrist liberalism, cosmopolitanism, open society, from the threats both by populists and by the hard left. I think there is a hunger for a coherent worldview that isn\u2019t just the status quo, the un-Trumpism. We can do better than that. We ought to use reason and science to enhance human well-being.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"link-4c77adad\" class=\"css-sbs9ef eqpy7av0\">Do you think science played a role in these positive developments?<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-1ygdjhk e2kc3sl0\">Yes. Advances in longevity and health \u2014 life expectancy on Earth has grown from about 30 to more than 70, in rich countries to more than 80. Health and prosperity, and sustenance \u2014 the fact that famines are far rarer than they used to be. Malnutrition is much lower, infectious disease. More generally, I see science as part of the Enlightenment \u2014 namely reason applied to human betterment.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"link-7a9ddb84\" class=\"css-sbs9ef eqpy7av0\">Yet we also know that science has caused misery.<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-1ygdjhk e2kc3sl0\">There\u2019s a lot of blame to go around. The value of science is not the value of a bunch of people who call themselves scientists. It\u2019s the concept. It\u2019s also the value of science that tells us when there\u2019s been a failure of reasoning, that identifies the biases and distortions and also points the way to overcome them.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"link-5d2b681\" class=\"css-sbs9ef eqpy7av0\">So, we need institutions like government to keep us acting rationally?<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-1ygdjhk e2kc3sl0\">None of us is anywhere close to perfect. Scientists themselves are not terribly, not completely rational. We can set up institutions that result in greater rationality than any of us is capable of individually, like peer review, like free speech, like a free press, like empirical testing \u2014 norms and institutions that make us collectively more rational than any of us is individually.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"link-c2b4b9e\" class=\"css-sbs9ef eqpy7av0\">Do you think science can continue to address humanity\u2019s problems?<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-1ygdjhk e2kc3sl0\">If we\u2019re going to solve the problem of avoiding catastrophic climate change, it\u2019s going to come through technology. If you can bend the curve with advances in science, and people can just do what is cheapest and most convenient and that spares the planet \u2014 that\u2019s our most feasible pathway to avoiding catastrophe. I do think that science and technology are going to be absolutely essential to meeting those challenges.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"link-63e2e2dd\" class=\"css-sbs9ef eqpy7av0\">Why do you think people continue to hold on to demonstrably unscientific beliefs?<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-1ygdjhk e2kc3sl0\">It looks like the biggest reason is not because they don\u2019t know the science, but because of their political ideology. The reason that people deny human-made climate change is not that they\u2019re ignorant of climate science, but because they\u2019re on the political right. Conversely, people who accept human-made climate change don\u2019t necessarily understand what\u2019s causing it. There are scientists who believe that Al Gore\u2019s making of \u201cAn Inconvenient Truth\u201d is the worst thing that ever happened to climate change awareness, because he branded it as a left-wing issue, and then the right rejected it out of hand.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-u5vfum StoryBodyCompanionColumn\">\n<div class=\"css-4w7y5l\">\n<h2 id=\"link-2987f1c9\" class=\"css-sbs9ef eqpy7av0\">Is it impossible to combat this irrationality?<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-1ygdjhk e2kc3sl0\">One answer is to make people aware of it, because I think most people are not. Then once one has that understanding, to try to depoliticize issues as much as possible. I do try to disassociate empirical issues from political baggage.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-u5vfum StoryBodyCompanionColumn\">\n<div class=\"css-4w7y5l\">\n<h2 id=\"link-22c0e804\" class=\"css-sbs9ef eqpy7av0\">How have these ideas about progress changed you?<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-1ygdjhk e2kc3sl0\">I read the news differently to try to put events of the day in perspective. The mainstream media are a hell of a lot better than the not-so-mainstream media, but I\u2019ve noticed a number of sources of systematic pessimism in journalistic practices. My own view of the world was radically altered when I looked at data instead of headlines.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1ygdjhk e2kc3sl0\">If history is about all the wars, all the disasters, you\u2019re missing all this incremental improvement that can only be ascertained through data.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"link-2d22882e\" class=\"css-sbs9ef eqpy7av0\">Does it matter that some things are improving if other things are getting worse?<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-1ygdjhk e2kc3sl0\">I don\u2019t think the fact that some things are improving means&nbsp;<em class=\"css-2fg4z9 ehxkw330\">everything<\/em>&nbsp;is improving. That\u2019s not the way the world works.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1ygdjhk e2kc3sl0\">It\u2019s no contradiction to say that we\u2019re extending human life and there are threats: threats of climate change, threats of authoritarian politicians. You can appreciate the threats, worry about the threats, try to fight back against the threats at the same time that you appreciate the progress that we have made.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1ygdjhk e2kc3sl0\">I would say that it\u2019s appreciating the progress that gives us the courage and conviction to try to strive for more progress. History tells us that attempts to make the world better tend to succeed. We\u2019ll never achieve a utopia, but that doesn\u2019t mean we can\u2019t make things a little bit better.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Harvard psychologist says he is no starry-eyed optimist. It\u2019s just that the data don\u2019t lie. Steven Pinker, a cognitive psychologist at Harvard University, maintains that by objective measures the world is heading in the right direction.&nbsp;CreditCreditKayana Szymczak for The New York Times By&nbsp;Karen Weintraub,&nbsp;New York Times,&nbsp;Nov. 19, 2018 Steven Pinker, a cognitive psychologist at &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/world-politics-fall-2020\/steven-pinker-thinks-the-future-is-looking-bright\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Steven Pinker Thinks the Future Is Looking Bright&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":114,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-110","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/world-politics-fall-2020\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/110","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/world-politics-fall-2020\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/world-politics-fall-2020\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/world-politics-fall-2020\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/114"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/world-politics-fall-2020\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=110"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/world-politics-fall-2020\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/110\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":841,"href":"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/world-politics-fall-2020\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/110\/revisions\/841"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/world-politics-fall-2020\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=110"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}