{"id":295,"date":"2020-07-11T11:14:59","date_gmt":"2020-07-11T15:14:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/world-politics-fall-2020\/?page_id=295"},"modified":"2020-07-11T12:28:39","modified_gmt":"2020-07-11T16:28:39","slug":"its-2002","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/world-politics-fall-2020\/its-2002\/","title":{"rendered":"It\u2019s 2022. What Does Life Look Like?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<header class=\"css-1pbfuir euiyums2\">\n<div class=\"css-v5btjw etb61u70\">The pandemic could shape the world, much as World War II and the Great Depression did.<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-18e8msd\">\n<div class=\"css-vp77d3 epjyd6m0\">\n<div class=\"css-1p10dcb ey68jwv0\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><a class=\"css-uwwqev\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/by\/david-leonhardt\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"css-1vbou05 ey68jwv2\" title=\"David Leonhardt\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2020\/05\/01\/multimedia\/David-Leonhardt-Headshot-The-Morning\/David-Leonhardt-Headshot-The-Morning-thumbLarge-v3.png\" alt=\"David Leonhardt\" \/><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"css-1baulvz\">\n<p class=\"css-1nuro5j e1jsehar1\">By\u00a0<a class=\"css-brehiz e1jsehar0\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/by\/david-leonhardt\"><span class=\"css-1baulvz last-byline\">David Leonhardt<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"css-8atqhb\">\n<p class=\"css-qckjh9 e1wtpvyy0\">Mr. Leonhardt writes The Morning newsletter.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<ul class=\"css-1u1psjv epjyd6m3\">\n<li class=\"css-ccw2r3 epjyd6m1\"><em>New York Times<\/em>, July 10, 2020<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-79elbk\" data-testid=\"photoviewer-wrapper\">\n<div class=\"css-1nuwa5u ehw59r12\" data-testid=\"photoviewer-children\">\n<div class=\"css-tux0zj ehw59r13\" data-testid=\"photoviewer-overlay\">\n<div class=\"css-14uow92 ehw59r14\">\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-8h527k\">\n<div data-testid=\"lazyimage-container\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-1a48zt4 ehw59r15\" data-testid=\"photoviewer-children\">\n<figure class=\"sizeLarge layoutHorizontal css-1ox9jel\" role=\"group\" aria-label=\"media\">\n<div class=\"css-bsn42l\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"css-11cwn6f\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2020\/07\/12\/opinion\/sunday\/12leonhardt-1\/12leonhardt-1-articleLarge.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp&amp;disable=upscale\" \/><\/div><figcaption class=\"css-17ai7jg e18f7pbr0\"><span class=\"css-cnj6d5 e1z0qqy90\"><span class=\"css-cnj6d5 e1z0qqy90\"><span class=\"css-1ly73wi e1tej78p0\">Credit&#8230;<\/span>Illustration by Zak Tebbal; Photographs from Getty Images<\/span><\/span>\u00a0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"meteredContent css-1r7ky0e\">\n<div class=\"css-1fanzo5 StoryBodyCompanionColumn\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">It\u2019s 2022, and the coronavirus has at long last been defeated. After a miserable year-and-a-half, alternating between lockdowns and new outbreaks, life can finally begin returning to normal.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">But it will not be the old normal. It will be a new world, with a reshaped economy, much as war and depression reordered life for previous generations.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">Thousands of stores and companies that were vulnerable before the virus arrived have disappeared. Dozens of colleges are shutting down, in the first wave of closures in the history of American higher education. People have also changed long-held patterns of behavior: Outdoor socializing is in, business trips are out.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">And American politics \u2014 while still divided in many of the same ways it was before the virus \u2014 has entered a new era.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-1fanzo5 StoryBodyCompanionColumn\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">All of this, obviously, is conjecture. The future is unknowable. But the pandemic increasingly looks like one of the defining events of our time. The best-case scenarios are now out of reach, and the United States is suffering through a new virus surge\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/06\/29\/briefing\/coronavirus-mississippi-new-england-patriots-your-monday-briefing.html\">that\u2019s worse than in any other country<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">With help from economists, politicians and business executives, I have tried to imagine what a post-Covid economy may look like. One message I heard is that the course of the virus itself will play the biggest role in the medium term. If scientific breakthroughs come quickly and the virus is largely defeated this year, there may not be many permanent changes to everyday life.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">On the other hand, if a vaccine remains out of reach for years, the long-term changes could be truly profound. Any industry that depends on close human contact would be at risk.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">Large swaths of the\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.csmonitor.com\/Business\/2020\/0504\/Will-cruise-industry-recover-Some-passengers-yearn-to-reboard\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">cruise-ship<\/a>\u00a0and theme-park industries might go away. So could many movie theaters and\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.si.com\/mlb\/2020\/05\/19\/minor-league-baseball-is-in-crisis\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">minor-league baseball teams<\/a>. The long-predicted demise of the traditional department store would finally come to pass. Thousands of restaurants would be wiped out (even if they would eventually be replaced by different restaurants).<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">The changes that I\u2019m imagining in this article are based on neither an unexpectedly fast or slow resolution, but instead on what many scientists consider the baseline. In this scenario, a vaccine will arrive sometime in 2021. Until then, the world will endure waves of sickness, death and uncertainty.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\">\n<div id=\"c-col-editors-picks\" class=\"css-j64t31\">\n<article class=\"css-5raq8g\">\n<h3 class=\"css-1p08cbr\"><span style=\"font-size: 16px;font-weight: 400\">Before we get into the details, there is one more caveat worth mentioning: Many things will <\/span><em class=\"css-2fg4z9 e1gzwzxm0\" style=\"font-size: 16px;font-weight: 400\">not<\/em><span style=\"font-size: 16px;font-weight: 400\">\u00a0change. That\u2019s one of history\u2019s lessons.<\/span><\/h3>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n<\/aside>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-1fanzo5 StoryBodyCompanionColumn\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">The financial crisis of 2007-9 didn\u2019t cause Americans to sour on stocks, and it didn\u2019t lead to an overhaul of Wall Street. The election of the first Black president didn\u2019t usher in an era of racial conciliation. The 9\/11 attacks didn\u2019t make Americans unwilling to fly. The Vietnam War didn\u2019t bring an end to extended foreign wars without a clear mission.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">Yet if the pandemic really does shape life for the next year, it will probably be remembered as a more significant historical event than those precedents. It could easily be the most important global experience since World War II and the Great Depression. Events that hold the world\u2019s attention for long stretches \u2014 and that alter the rhythms of everyday life \u2014 do tend to leave a legacy.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"><\/aside>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-79elbk\" data-testid=\"photoviewer-wrapper\">\n<div class=\"css-z3e15g\" data-testid=\"photoviewer-wrapper-hidden\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"css-48u1sz ehw59r12\" data-testid=\"photoviewer-children\">\n<div class=\"css-tux0zj ehw59r13\" data-testid=\"photoviewer-overlay\">\n<div class=\"css-1y7c37y ehw59r14\">\n<p><button class=\"css-1vkv6l7 ehw59r10\" aria-label=\"Expand this image\" data-testid=\"photoviewer-expand-button\"><\/button><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"css-1m50asq\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2020\/07\/12\/opinion\/sunday\/12leonhardt-2\/12leonhardt-2-articleLarge.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp&amp;disable=upscale\" \/><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-1a48zt4 ehw59r15\" data-testid=\"photoviewer-children\">\n<figure class=\"css-jcw7oy e1g7ppur0\" role=\"group\" aria-label=\"media\"><figcaption class=\"css-1l44abu ewdxa0s0\"><span class=\"css-cnj6d5 e1z0qqy90\"><span class=\"css-cnj6d5 e1z0qqy90\"><span class=\"css-1ly73wi e1tej78p0\">Credit&#8230;<\/span>Illustration by Zak Tebbal; Photograph from Getty Images<\/span><\/span>\u00a0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-1fanzo5 StoryBodyCompanionColumn\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<h2 id=\"link-6301a97e\" class=\"css-1tt7ig1 eoo0vm40\">Weak companies will die<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">\u201cIt\u2019s only when the tide goes out,\u201d Warren Buffett\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.berkshirehathaway.com\/letters\/1992.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">likes to say<\/a>, \u201cthat you learn who\u2019s been swimming naked.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">His point is that companies with flawed business models can look healthy in good times. Out of habit, many customers continue to buy from them. But when the economy weakens, people have to make decisions about where to pull back. They often start with products and services that they find the least valuable or that they can replace with a cheaper alternative.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">A downturn, says Emily Oster, a Brown University economist, \u201cis an opportunity to revisit inefficiencies.\u201d And the coronavirus is likely to cause a larger version of this phenomenon than a typical recession.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"><\/aside>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"story-ad-3-wrapper\" class=\"css-1r07izm\">\n<div id=\"story-ad-3-slug\" class=\"css-l9onyx\">Local newspapers will be one casualty. They were already struggling, because Google, Facebook and Craigslist had taken away their main source of revenue: print advertising. Between 2008 and 2019, American newspapers eliminated <a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.pewresearch.org\/fact-tank\/2020\/04\/20\/u-s-newsroom-employment-has-dropped-by-a-quarter-since-2008\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">about half of all newsroom jobs<\/a>.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-1fanzo5 StoryBodyCompanionColumn\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">The virus has led to further declines in advertising and\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/opinions\/2020\/05\/05\/my-former-newspaper-is-struggling-is-more-important-than-ever\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">more job cuts<\/a>\u00a0\u2014 and could end up forcing dozens more papers to fold or become tiny shells of their old selves. If that happens, their cities will be left without perhaps the only major source of information about local politics, business, education and the like.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">Traditional department stores are another example. In recent years, they have lost significant business to online retailers and\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/02\/13\/business\/not-internet-really-killing-malls.html\">quietly lost even more to big-box stores<\/a>. Many Americans have decided they prefer either specialty stores (like Home Depot) or discount stores (like Costco) over the one-stop-shopping experience that Sears, Macy\u2019s and J.C. Penney have long offered.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">Now the virus has interrupted in-person shopping and caused many consumers to shift even more business online, to Amazon, Target and Walmart. \u201cThe retailers doing fair to poorly are absolutely not coming out of this,\u201d said Mark Cohen, a former executive at Sears and Federated Department Stores who teaches at Columbia Business School. \u201cMany, many of them are going to fail, have already failed or will fail when they reopen.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">If they do, they will create spillover victims \u2014 the hundreds of malls that rely on department stores for rent and foot traffic. The roughly 250 fancier malls around the country, like The Westchester in suburban New York and The Galleria in Houston, are likely to survive, Mr. Cohen predicted. Some will convert old stores into spaces for experiences, like dining, bowling, medical care or\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ajc.com\/news\/local\/topgolf-files-for-permits-build-near-mall-georgia\/RgApvG4QMq6jlVgFbjrdMK\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">a golf driving range<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">But many of the country\u2019s remaining 1,100 or so traditional malls are at risk of failing. Even before the virus, Amazon turned two former malls near Cleveland\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2019\/01\/30\/from-toys-r-us-to-tk-heres-how-shuttered-stores-are-getting-a-new-life.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">into warehouses<\/a>, a physical manifestation of changing shopping habits.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">A third at-risk industry \u2014 higher education \u2014 is a bit different from the others, because it\u2019s so heavily subsidized by the government. Yet dozens of colleges, both private and public, are facing real trouble.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"story-ad-4-wrapper\" class=\"css-1r07izm\">\n<div id=\"story-ad-4\" class=\"ad story-ad-4-wrapper\" data-google-query-id=\"CPSLtv-8xeoCFRBGXgodgUkJxg\">\n<div id=\"google_ads_iframe_\/29390238\/nyt\/opinion\/sunday_7__container__\">College enrollment in the United States has been growing almost continually since the Civil War. It kept growing even after the baby boomers finished college, because a rising percentage of young people were enrolling. But the 150-plus-year boom appears to have ended about a decade ago. Undergraduate enrollment <a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/nces.ed.gov\/programs\/coe\/indicator_cha.asp\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">fell 8 percent<\/a>\u00a0between 2010 and 2018.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-1fanzo5 StoryBodyCompanionColumn\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">Why? Birthrates have fallen, and the percentage of young people going to college isn\u2019t rising significantly anymore. The population trends are especially stark in the Northeast and Midwest, where many colleges are. Late last year, the Chronicle of Higher Education published a bracing report called,\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=Btzl4mPBKFc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u201cThe Looming Enrollment Crisis.\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">The virus is exacerbating almost every problem that colleges faced. They have already lost revenue from summer school, food service, parking fees and more. Perhaps most significant, the recession is hammering state budgets, which will probably lead to future cuts in college funding.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">The immediate question is whether colleges will be able to bring back students this fall, as administrators are desperately hoping. If they can\u2019t, enrollment and tuition revenue are likely to drop sharply, creating existential crises for many less selective private colleges and smaller public universities.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">Yuval Levin, a conservative policy expert and the founding editor of National Affairs, put it this way: \u201cThe top 20 schools are probably not going to change. But what is actually higher education \u2014 more than 4,000 universities \u2014 I think will change a lot.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">Of course, business failures can be healthy. They are part of the \u201ccreative destruction\u201d that the economist Joseph Schumpeter famously described, allowing more efficient and innovative rivals to rise. The disappearance of many old department stores won\u2019t be a tragedy if they are replaced by stores people prefer.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">But some of the virus-related destruction will have damaging side effects. When local newspapers close, corruption and political polarization tend to rise, while voter turnout tends to fall,\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/office-of-citizen\/how-we-know-journalism-is-good-for-democracy-9125e5c995fb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">academic research has found<\/a>. Cuts to higher-education budgets could make it even harder for poor and middle-class students to graduate.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">\u201cThe biggest danger that we face as a sector,\u201d Ted Mitchell, a former college president who now runs the American Council on Education, an industry group, told me, \u201cis a loss of the gains we\u2019ve made over the past 20 years in the access for first-generation and minority students.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-1fanzo5 StoryBodyCompanionColumn\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"css-79elbk\" data-testid=\"photoviewer-wrapper\">\n<div class=\"css-z3e15g\" data-testid=\"photoviewer-wrapper-hidden\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"css-1a48zt4 ehw59r15\" data-testid=\"photoviewer-children\">\n<figure class=\"css-jcw7oy e1g7ppur0\" role=\"group\" aria-label=\"media\">\n<div class=\"css-1xdhyk6 erfvjey0\">\n<div class=\"css-8h527k\">\n<div data-testid=\"lazyimage-container\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"css-1m50asq\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2020\/07\/12\/opinion\/sunday\/12leonhardt-3\/12leonhardt-3-articleLarge.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp&amp;disable=upscale\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"css-1l44abu ewdxa0s0\"><span class=\"css-cnj6d5 e1z0qqy90\"><span class=\"css-1ly73wi e1tej78p0\">Credit&#8230;<\/span>Illustration by Zak Tebbal; Photograph from Getty Images<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-1fanzo5 StoryBodyCompanionColumn\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<h2><\/h2>\n<h2 id=\"link-18d089d7\" class=\"css-1tt7ig1 eoo0vm40\">Habits will change<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">If you talk to students, parents and teachers about remote learning during the pandemic \u2014 from preschool through college \u2014 they\u2019re likely to tell you that\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/06\/05\/us\/coronavirus-education-lost-learning.html\">it\u2019s been disappointing<\/a>. It went \u201cvery, very badly\u201d last spring, Mr. Levin says, and many parents assume it will not be much better this fall.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">But if you talk to white-collar workers about their experiences with videoconferencing, you will hear a different story: It doesn\u2019t replace the richness of in-person conversations, but many meetings work perfectly well over Zoom, FaceTime or Google Meet.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">Millions of workers are returning to the office or will be soon. Many have no choice, including teachers, janitors and retail workers. But for many white-collar workers, the remote-work experiment shows no sign of ending \u2014 a trend that could depress the commercial real-estate market and business travel long after a vaccine is available.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">Twitter has told many employees that they can plan\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.buzzfeednews.com\/article\/alexkantrowitz\/twitter-will-allow-employees-to-work-at-home-forever\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">to work from home forever<\/a>. In New York, several major companies, including Barclays, JP Morgan Chase and Morgan Stanley,\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/05\/12\/nyregion\/coronavirus-work-from-home.html\">have said<\/a>\u00a0they don\u2019t expect to use as much Manhattan office space as they did before the pandemic.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">As Satya Nadella, Microsoft\u2019s chief executive,\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.microsoft.com\/en-us\/microsoft-365\/blog\/2020\/04\/30\/2-years-digital-transformation-2-months\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">said this spring<\/a>, \u201cWe\u2019ve seen two years\u2019 worth of digital transformation in two months.\u201d Working from home creates its own efficiencies \u2014 less time spent on traffic-clogged roads, more flexibility for parents and people caring for elderly relatives.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"><\/aside>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"story-ad-6-wrapper\" class=\"css-1r07izm\">\n<div id=\"story-ad-6-slug\" class=\"css-l9onyx\"><\/div>\n<div id=\"story-ad-6\" class=\"ad story-ad-6-wrapper\" data-google-query-id=\"CLb89pi9xeoCFRMSaQodxBYJYg\">\n<div id=\"google_ads_iframe_\/29390238\/nyt\/opinion\/sunday_9__container__\">Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody\u2019s Analytics, has 200 economists around the world who report to him, and he has noticed that they are more efficient than before the pandemic struck. In the past, he would often get on a plane for a short meeting with a few economists. The virus has caused them to move these meetings online, where they share screens with one another and work on databases at the same time.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-1fanzo5 StoryBodyCompanionColumn\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">\u201cWe\u2019ve gotten used to it very quickly and like it,\u201d Mr. Zandi said. \u201cI just don\u2019t see us going back.\u201d Because other businesses are having the same experience, he predicted, \u201cBusiness travel is going to fundamentally change.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">In-person meetings and conferences will continue to happen. But the threshold for what requires travel, and the time, cost and fatigue it brings, will rise. \u201cMaybe we\u2019ve discovered that we don\u2019t need to travel as much as we did before,\u201d said Cecilia Rouse, the dean of Princeton\u2019s School of Public and International Affairs. American Airlines and Delta Air Lines recently offered buyouts to employees, and Airbus cut thousands of jobs, signs that the companies expect airline travel to be depressed for years.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">The larger theme is that crises can force or accelerate behavior changes. Some of the old behavior will revert when the pandemic ends. But not all of it will. In some cases, people will realize that they were sticking to old habits out of inertia and prefer their new habits.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"><\/aside>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-79elbk\" data-testid=\"photoviewer-wrapper\">\n<div class=\"css-z3e15g\" data-testid=\"photoviewer-wrapper-hidden\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"css-48u1sz ehw59r12\" data-testid=\"photoviewer-children\">\n<div class=\"css-tux0zj ehw59r13\" data-testid=\"photoviewer-overlay\">\n<div class=\"css-zqf9sa ehw59r11\" data-testid=\"photoviewer-captionblock\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"css-1y7c37y ehw59r14\">\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-8h527k\">\n<div data-testid=\"lazyimage-container\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2020\/07\/12\/opinion\/sunday\/12leonhardt-4\/12leonhardt-4-articleLarge.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp&amp;disable=upscale\" alt=\"\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><span class=\"css-1ly73wi e1tej78p0\">Credit&#8230;<\/span>Illustration by Zak Tebbal; Photograph from Getty Images<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-1fanzo5 StoryBodyCompanionColumn\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<h2 id=\"link-23ebdb8b\" class=\"css-1tt7ig1 eoo0vm40\">Politics will shape the economy<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">The biggest source of uncertainty about the post-virus American economy is political. Past crises have transformed the economy, but\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/04\/09\/opinion\/sunday\/coronavirus-inequality-america.html\">almost always because of government policy<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">The Civil War allowed Abraham Lincoln and his allies to create a transcontinental railroad and a national network of public universities. The Great Depression led to a raft of federal laws that reduced inequality. The housing crisis that began in 2007 helped elect a Democratic president and Congress that extended health insurance to millions of people.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-1fanzo5 StoryBodyCompanionColumn\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">If President Trump wins re-election this year, it may not lead to any major new economic legislation, partly because he has not proposed any. But Mr. Trump would continue to have vast regulatory authority, and he is likely to continue giving businesses more flexibility to behave as they want.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">One of the key post-virus implications could be further consolidation in many industries, with big companies becoming even bigger. Early signs indicate they are surviving the lockdown better than smaller rivals, in part because they have more cash on hand, better access to loans and an easier time switching to online sales.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">Consolidation, in turn,\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2019\/11\/10\/opinion\/big-business-consumer-prices.html\">tends to increase income and wealth inequality<\/a>, in part because the largest companies are run by highly paid executives, typically based in major metro areas, and the companies\u2019 stock is disproportionately owned by the affluent.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">\u201cMy basic fear,\u201d Heather Boushey, a leading progressive economist, said, \u201cis that it leads to a rule by the oligarchs.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">At this point, however, Mr. Trump is the underdog; he trails Joe Biden in both national\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/06\/25\/upshot\/poll-2020-biden-battlegrounds.html\">and swing-state polls<\/a>. Democrats also have a realistic chance to retake control of the Senate. (They would need to win five of\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/cookpolitical.com\/ratings\/senate-race-ratings\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">the 11 races that appear competitive<\/a>.) If Democrats control both the White House and Congress, they will be poised to embark on a sweeping economic agenda.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">Some analysts believe that they may even see some support from across the aisle. A big Trump loss, amid a pandemic and recession, could jolt the Republican Party into being more open to government action. \u201cThe debate for Republicans to be having in the 21st century is not big or small government \u2014 it\u2019s what do we need from our government,\u201d Mr. Levin said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">Jake Sullivan, a top Biden adviser, said: \u201cEven Republicans \u2014 younger Republicans \u2014 have recognized that the center of gravity is shifting on the relationship between the state and the market.\u201d The virus, he added, \u201cwill only accelerate that.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"><\/aside>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"story-ad-8-wrapper\" class=\"css-1r07izm\">\n<div id=\"story-ad-8-slug\" class=\"css-l9onyx\">True, predictions of forthcoming Republican moderation haven\u2019t fared well in recent years. Yet even if they again prove wrong, Democrats may pursue an ambitious agenda by <a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.vox.com\/policy-and-politics\/2017\/9\/29\/16373460\/senate-budget-reconciliation-filibuster\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">abandoning the Senate filibuster<\/a>, as many progressives favor, and passing legislation on a majority basis.<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-1fanzo5 StoryBodyCompanionColumn\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">That agenda is shaping up to have two defining features. The first is reducing inequality \u2014 through higher taxes on the rich, greater scrutiny of big companies, new efforts to reduce racial injustice and more investments and programs for the middle class and poor, including health care, education and paid leave. The second is acting on climate change, which could cause even more global misery than the coronavirus. \u201cClimate change cannot be solved by the private sector,\u201d Senator Chuck Schumer, the Democrats\u2019 minority leader, told me. \u201cPeople under 45 realize it.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">Mr. Biden may not seem like a history-altering figure, certainly like less of one than Barack Obama did. But he could wind up presiding over a larger scale of political change than Mr. Obama did, for reasons largely independent of the two men themselves.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">Ms. Boushey, who runs the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, argues that progressives are better positioned to pass sweeping change in 2021 than they were in 2009, after the financial crisis. Then, the only major policy area in which Democrats had a comprehensive, politically viable plan was health care \u2014 and, not coincidentally, it became\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2010\/03\/24\/business\/24leonhardt.html\">Mr. Obama\u2019s biggest policy success<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">\u201cAlthough you had this crisis, you didn\u2019t have the ideas that were ready to go,\u201d Ms. Boushey said. Today, by contrast, progressives have spent years working through the details of plans on climate change, high-end tax increases, antitrust policy and more. And while Mr. Obama\u2019s team had only a couple of months to plan for taking office amid a national crisis, Mr. Biden\u2019s team would have almost a year. \u201cThere is a whole vision that I think is ready,\u201d Ms. Boushey added. \u201cAnd there is a lot more runway.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">Mr. Biden and congressional Democrats would need to avoid getting bogged down in intramural squabbles between the center and the left. But the potential exists for the farthest-reaching period of legislative change since Ronald Reagan\u2019s presidency.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">In less than 15 years, the United States has suffered the biggest two economic crises since the Great Depression, the worst pandemic in more than a century and the election of two presidents unlike any before them \u2014 and diametrically unlike each other. If there is a single lesson of the current era of American politics, it\u2019s that change can happen more quickly than we imagined.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The pandemic could shape the world, much as World War II and the Great Depression did. By\u00a0David Leonhardt Mr. Leonhardt writes The Morning newsletter. New York Times, July 10, 2020 Credit&#8230;Illustration by Zak Tebbal; Photographs from Getty Images\u00a0 It\u2019s 2022, and the coronavirus has at long last been defeated. After a miserable year-and-a-half, alternating between &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/world-politics-fall-2020\/its-2002\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;It\u2019s 2022. What Does Life Look Like?&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":114,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-295","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/world-politics-fall-2020\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/295","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/world-politics-fall-2020\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/world-politics-fall-2020\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/world-politics-fall-2020\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/114"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/world-politics-fall-2020\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=295"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/world-politics-fall-2020\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/295\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":300,"href":"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/world-politics-fall-2020\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/295\/revisions\/300"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.nd.edu\/world-politics-fall-2020\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=295"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}