Political science says no, but what about personal opinion?
Posted on October 4, 2012 in Debate Signifigance by Meredith
This is one of the most controversial questions going into the debates- do they really matter? According to the Washington Post, they don’t. But according to my personal and political view, they do.
In a recent article I read in the Washington Post entitled “Do the political debates really matter? Political science says no” statistics show that the candidate going into the first debate with the higher percentage in the polls more commonly wins the election than the candidate in second place. Further within the article they stated only two years, 1980 and 2000, was the leader in the polls switch and nevertheless the leader after the first debate won the election. This is pretty convincing and heavy statistical evidence for why the presidential debates don’t matter, but what about personal evidence? Which is more convincing and which is more reliable?
Personally going into the debate I thought that Obama was the stronger and more passionately motivated candidate in the race. But after the debates, my opinion has been turned. Romney cam back fighting on almost every comment Obama had to make, never backing down even when it seemed as if Obama had the upper hand. Anyone would agree that in this debate Romney was fighting an uphill battle from the beginning which makes his strong performance even more impressive. Romney was solid in his claims, with specific statistics, anecdotes, and numbers to back him up. He even was able to bring up the point about Obama giving 90 billion dollars to green energy last year, which I’m sure many of the country wasn’t aware of. Romney was obviously prepared for this debate but not only in his appearance but in his background checks. He was educated upon Obama’s plans as well as his own, which I personally thought was very impressive.
Overall, I am more now enticed by Romney and his beliefs, his plan for the future, and what he would be like as president. So in hindsight does the debate change my vote? Not necessarily, no but it has changed my train of thought. So in reference back to the Washington Post, in my personal opinion the debate has made a difference in my mind, but has it in the nations? I guess only time will tell.
I find Meredith’s insight to be very interesting. Her use of the Washington post article was very engaging as she brought in her own experiences with the debate, which helped me to consider the different thoughts and ideas surrounding people as they watched and digested the debate.
Voting is a discrete, or absolute if you prefer, action. The person on the fence who ultimately goes for Romney is no different from the person who is a dyed in the wool Romney supporter statistically, or even when the votes are tallied. So I’m not sure your personal experience is a counterexample to begin with. If you vote the same way as you would have before, did the debate actually accomplish anything?
I actually did not vote the same way as I would have before. That would the objective of the post, I did not know at the time I was going to change my vote 100% but in the end I did. I started off as a Obama supporter and the debate allowed me to see Romney in a differrent light. The debate made me want to investigate his policy more, and I ended up agreeing more with him that I thought I did in the first place.