A recent report by RethinkX, an independent think-tank that studies broad market disruptions from technology, noted that 95% of miles driven in 2030 will be driven by autonomous electric vehicles. Their comprehensive study examined the social, environmental, economic, and geopolitical impacts of such a shift, producing the following diagram to help explain some of the motivations for developing and building self-driving cars:
Source: RethinkX
There are a couple of hot-button issues at play as this technology advances and its impacts (especially the negative ones) become more and more inevitable. Specifically, is it moral for an autonomous system to make decisions about life and death? Is it moral to displace so many jobs via automation? Is it moral to increase wealth inequality beyond current levels? Such questions directly relate to the shift we will see in the next 5-10 years.
Last week, I had the chance to speak to Democratic Congressman John Delaney, the head of the Artificial Intelligence caucus in the US House of Representatives, at the 8th annual Naval Academy Science and Engineering Conference in Annapolis, Maryland. Representative Delaney was bullish on autonomous cars and the enormous safety and productivity benefits of a society transported by this technology. He was asked several tough questions last Monday. On job loss, he argued we would be “betting against history” to say that the market wouldn’t balance itself out, noting that innovation has reversed the poverty rate significantly in the last century. However, he said that the key for America is to be invested in more education–K to 12 is no longer viable. He suggested pre-K through college or technical training to get more Americans prepared for the future. Finally, Congressman Delaney mentioned that life has tradeoffs. He said:
“If the positives outweigh the negatives, there will still be negatives! You just have to deal with them.”
Thus, I think he viewed our autonomous-driving future as inevitable and good, with only minor consequences. I tend to agree with this view but don’t have the solution to the negative impacts…does anyone?
This summer, I saw Google’s Waymo cars driving about daily in Mountain View and got so excited! I love disruptions in technology because it means I happen to be living at a time when history is being made. Specifically, I feel like our society is optimizing the human experience. Innovation usually means more money, more time, more lives saved–for everyone. RethinkX’s widely-publicized study found that self-driving cars will increase mobility among low-income families and many people restricted by today’s model. In addition, they found:
“Savings on transportation costs will result in a permanent boost in annual disposable income for U.S. households, totaling $1 trillion by 2030. Consumer spending is by far the largest driver of the economy, comprising about 71% of total GDP and driving business and job growth throughout the economy.”
In the US alone, more than 30,000 auto accident deaths last year alone can be attributed to human error. Autonomous cars will bring that number significantly down–and have already displayed positive results. In the same way that seatbelts were legalized inconveniences to protect safety, I think we’ll find ourselves in a world where human driving is illegal in some places to promote the safety self-driving cars bring.
Self-driving cars will surely be disruptive, but so has every progressive event in human history. Humans have an incredible imagination and will only continue to innovate as we afford ourselves more resources. I can’t wait to ride in my first self-driven ride!