Bucharest 2008: 15 Years of War

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By Marko Gural

The interpretation of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is up for debate: some argue that NATO expansion forced Putin’s hand, while others assert that imperial Russian tendencies motivated Moscow. Both claims miss the point. The means by which NATO expanded–without firm commitments or deadlines–allowed careful Russian escalation.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is entering its twentieth month. Ukraine’s highly-awaited counteroffensive has neither culminated nor failed, but Ukraine is fighting for small settlements when many expected it to be capturing major cities and destroying Russian ground lines of communication. A lack of substantial victories makes the dim future of negotiations slightly more visible. Whispers of peace permeate the halls of Western security players: Gen. Mark Milley, US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff; Stian Jenssen, Chief of Staff to the UN Secretary General; and Richard Haass, former Council on Foreign Relations President, have all hinted at possible Ukrainian concessions or diplomacy with Russia.1

How did this war come about? Many have debated its roots. Realists claim that their theory of international politics foresaw Putin’s dark reaction to NATO’s provocatory march to his western border, with John Mearsheimer even stating in 2014 that “the Ukraine crisis is the West’s fault.”2 Others believe that Putin dreams of a return to imperial Russia, hoping to wipe Ukraine off the list of nations and continue his trek west.3

This piece is not about theory or ideology, but seeks to understand landmark moments in Russo-Ukrainian security and the many actors behind European security policy in the leadup to February 24, 2022. Was there a turning point in Russian-Ukrainian-NATO relations that made war more likely? In other words, could a different NATO policy have deterred Putin’s invasion? How does this understanding impact Ukraine’s postwar orientation? NATO’s Ukraine policy since its 2008 Bucharest memorandum was the long-term cause of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, allowing Moscow to slowly escalate in Ukraine, blame its actions on NATO, and never fear serious NATO commitment. Had NATO been more forceful, or never considered expansion in the first place, Russia may not have started the bloodiest war in Europe since 1945. Thus, Ukraine must walk out of this conflict either incredibly militarily fortified or neutral with inviolable international guarantees. To maintain peace, compromise will be necessary.

Bucharest 2008

“Vladimir Putin 4 April 2008-9” by Presidential Press and Information Office is licensed under CC BY 4.0.

Ukrainian-NATO relations began in the 1990s and strengthened in the 2000s, but Ukrainian leadership was most successful in pushing for NATO membership in 2008 in order to protect “national sovereignty and territorial integrity.”4 Putin quickly announced Russia’s opposition to Ukraine in NATO, stating that NATO missile systems on Ukrainian territory would represent a grave threat to the Kremlin. The United States was Ukraine’s biggest supporter. President George W. Bush and presidential candidates Barack Obama and John McCain all backed Ukraine’s bid for NATO membership. Conversely, France and Germany remained staunchly opposed to eastward expansion: French Prime Minister François Fillon stated that Georgia and Ukraine may tip Europe’s balance of power against Russia and German Chancellor Angela Merkel similarly feared friction with Moscow.5 So, the Western security order reached a compromise.

NATO did not extend a path to membership to Georgia and Ukraine, but its final communique stated that the two countries “will become members of NATO.”6 NATO provided neither a firm commitment to support Ukraine nor a deadline for its accession, placing Ukraine in a liminal state of maximum vulnerability as the Russians feared a military alliance on its border. Concurrently, NATO provided no firm guarantees for Ukrainian security. Thus, in NATO’s 2008 phrase lay a multitude of possibilities for Moscow and a dithering future for Ukraine. 

First, NATO’s flimsy commitment to Ukraine allowed Moscow’s slow escalation in former-Soviet territories, culminating in Putin’s 2022 invasion. Russia’s post-Bucharest interventions have followed a similar pattern, with military activity followed by gray zone conflict. Putin invaded Georgia in December 2008 before recognizing the independence of two Georgian regions. He annexed Crimea and supported Ukrainian separatists in 2014, before agreeing to self government and low-level conflict in two Ukrainian regions. This careful push for more territory culminated in late 2021 and early 2022, when Putin placed 190,000 troops on Ukraine’s border.7 Western allies refused to cooperate with Russian pleas for negotiations, whether genuine or not, and Russia invaded.

Second, NATO’s 2008 statement allowed Russian leaders to voice fears of an overwhelming military alliance on its doorstep. The Kremlin spoke against NATO expansion in 2008,8 2014,9 2015,10 2016,11 and 2018.12 NATO has responded in-kind to hostilities, strengthening its security posture after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2014.13 

Realists cite Putin’s proximate cause of conflict as the Biden administration’s interest in Ukrainian membership in NATO.14 US Secretary of State Antony Blinken indeed stated in December 2021 that NATO’s doors “remain open” to Georgia and Ukraine, which represented no sudden or severe shift in policy.15 Yet, Putin was able to repeat talking points about NATO’s offensive threat, emphasizing that Russia “would be forced to act if NATO placed missiles in Ukraine.”16 Putin repeated NATO expansion as one reason for Russia’s invasion in his February 24, 2022 speech.17 NATO may have lit a fuse for escalation that it was not equipped to extinguish.

Third, Russia could be confident that NATO countries would not risk military confrontation in Ukraine. Russia’s relatively-small incursions into Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014 met weak rhetorical responses from major NATO powers.18 In responding to Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, US President Barack Obama only noted that the “international community” will not recognize actions that are internationally illegal.19 He refused to send Ukraine lethal aid. 

Therefore, NATO policy on Ukraine–officially beginning and unofficially culminating in April 2008–became Ukraine’s worst nightmare. This is NATO’s war, even if not from the limited perspective that any infringement on Russia’s “sphere” would have led to an invasion. Hindsight is 20/20, but other policies may have been more effective at avoiding war.

First, a more forceful NATO may have deterred Putin. A NATO policy of this sort would have reversed its two original sins: the lack of a firm commitment and a deadline. Rather than telling Ukraine and Georgia that the two countries “will” become NATO members, a NATO policy which took concrete immediate steps towards accession would have signaled commitment to Russia. Setting a deadline on membership would have pressured hesitant European states to genuinely work towards a security solution and deter non-NATO actors. Such a policy may have also benefited Russia in the long-term, as a Ukraine which failed to join NATO after an overdue deadline would clearly have no future in the organization and could not threaten Russia unilaterally.

Second, a NATO that never expanded eastward would never have threatened Russia and exposed Ukraine. This counterfactual does not guarantee that Putin would not invade Ukraine, as Putin is rather unkind to the Ukrainian nation from both a historical and current perspective.20 The policy, however, likely would have dissolved the source of more than a decade of tension with the West. 

Peace

What do these conclusions mean for the future of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict? Ukrainian liminality realistically created a security threat for Moscow while providing no military assurances. NATO’s in-between has allowed Putin to march into Ukraine. A peace deal should thus begin by recognizing Russia’s complaints and Ukraine’s fears.

Although diplomats may consider territory, possible human rights violations, and other subjects, Ukraine’s security situation is foremost in placating Russia and assuring Ukraine. Territorial disputes are secondary to security because the war’s frontline has changed little in recent months. Additionally, although Moscow annexed four Ukrainian oblasts, it has not completely occupied any of them.21 On-the-ground realities will define borders. Human rights are similarly not the first point of discussion in peace negotiations. Putting Russian human rights violators on trial would necessitate an overwhelming Ukrainian victory and a complete Russian collapse. Neither seems likely today; instead, if Moscow and Kyiv prioritize their survival and safety, then a new security arrangement in Eastern Europe is necessary.

Fearing liminality, actors should aim to create either a strong, independent Ukraine, or a neutral and demilitarized Ukraine with hefty security guarantees. Such is the art of negotiation: each warring nation has waged a battle with successes and failures. Peace ought to reflect that.

One possibility is a strong, independent Ukraine, which would renounce future Western security commitments in exchange for Russian acceptance of high Ukrainian defense spending. This agreement would recognize Ukraine as a security actor, but would protect Moscow against a Western security alliance moving further east. Although this situation may resolve Russia’s fears of NATO expansion, Ukraine would remain a (relatively small) threat on its western border prepared to protect itself if necessary.

Alternatively, Russia may be able to force a pledge of Ukrainian neutrality if Ukraine gains rock-solid security guarantees from Western partners. Russia provided a deal of this sort in the lead-up to the full-scale invasion, which would have included NATO’s withdrawal to its 1997 position.22 Violations of Ukrainian security would have to be separately decided, but would likely incorporate any territorial incursions against newly-defined borders. Ukrainian neutrality would thus implicitly accept a Russian security sphere, but would not accede to Russian pull factors due to strong Ukrainian nationalism.

Focusing on Ukraine solves Russia’s security concerns. Kyiv would no longer have the unilateral or multilateral power to threaten Moscow. Concurrently, Ukraine’s fears are placated because it would either have sufficient military might to deter and stop an invasion or rock-solid defensive security guarantees that would commit Western allies in case of another untimely invasion.

Are these realistic concessions for Ukraine and Russia’s domestic audiences? Perhaps not for Ukrainians, who have witnessed Moscow illegally invade their country and murder their brethren in cold blood. But, peace is not always joyous. Seeing as Ukraine’s recent advances have hardly changed the frontline, a world of peace is imaginable. 

Consulted References:

Bender, Jeremy. “This is the simplest explanation of why Putin is so opposed to NATO.” Business Insider. February 12, 2015. https://www.businessinsider.com/simplest-explanation-of-why-putin-hates-nato-2015-2 

“Bucharest Summit Declaration.” NATO. April 3, 2008. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_8443.htm 

Caldwell, Leigh Ann and Theodoric Meyer. “Gen. Milley on Ukraine, Tuberville and ‘wokeness.’” Washington Post. August 18, 2023. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/08/18/gen-milley-ukraine-tuberville-wokeness/ 

Chatzitheodorou, Christina. “Security At The Polish-Lithuanian Border Kaliningrad, Suwalki Gap and Russia.” Finabel. February 2022. https://finabel.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/42.-security-at-the-polish-lithuanian-border.pdf 

Connolly, Kevin. “US has only tough talk for Russia.” BBC News. August 12, 2008. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7555806.stm 

Erlanger, Steven. “As Ukraine’s Fight Grinds On, Talk of Negotiations Becomes Nearly Taboo.” New York Times. September 1, 2023. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/01/world/europe/ukraine-fight-negotiations.html 

Farchy, Jack. “Putin names Nato among threats in new Russian security strategy.” Financial Times. January 2, 2016. https://www.ft.com/content/6e8e787e-b15f-11e5-b147-e5e5bba42e51 

Fisher, Max. “Putin’s Case for War, Annotated.” New York Times. February 24, 2022. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/24/world/europe/putin-ukraine-speech.html 

“Foreign Secretary deplores continued fighting in Georgia.” Foreign & Commonwealth Office. August 8, 2008. https://web.archive.org/web/20080828024606/http://www.fco.gov.uk/resources/en/press-release/2008/august/georgia-statement-080809 

“Full Blinken: The International System Is ‘At Stake’ With Russia.” YouTube. December 12, 2021. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VJw8mVuYsVw&t=571s 

Hird, Karolina, Grace Mappes, Kateryna Stepanenko, Angelica Evans, and Mason Clark. “Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 8, 2023.” Institute for the Study of War. October 8, 2023. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-8-2023 

Mearsheimer, John J. “Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West’s Fault: The Liberal Delusions That Provoked Putin.” Foreign Affairs 93, no. 5 (2014): 77-89. 

Mearsheimer, John J. and Sebastian Rosato. “The Russian invasion was a rational act.” UnHerd. September 14, 2023. https://unherd.com/2023/09/the-russian-invasion-was-a-rational-act/ 

Melander, Ingrid and David Brunnstrom. “West urges end to South Ossetia fighting.” Reuters. August 8, 2008. https://web.archive.org/web/20080828172817/https://www.reuters.com/article/europeCrisis/idUSL844042 

Melvin, Neal. “Nationalist and Imperial Thinking Define Putin’s Vision for Russia.” RUSI. March 2, 2022. https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/nationalist-and-imperial-thinking-define-putins-vision-russia 

Osborn, Andrew. “Putin warns NATO against closer ties with Ukraine and Georgia.” Reuters. July 19, 2018. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-nato-putin/putin-warns-nato-against-closer-ties-with-ukraine-and-georgia-idUSKBN1K92KA 

Pamuk, Humeyra and Johan Ahlander. “U.S., NATO fully committed to Ukraine, says Blinken ahead of Lavrov talks.” Reuters. December 2, 2021. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/blinken-set-meet-russias-lavrov-ukraine-tensions-flare-2021-12-02/

Pifer, Steven. “Putin’s NATO Fears Are Groundless.” Brookings. July 2, 2014. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/putins-nato-fears-are-groundless/ 

“Russia army vows steps if Georgia and Ukraine join NATO.” Reuters. April 11, 2008. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-nato-steps-idUSL1143027920080411 

Slack, Megan. “President Obama Announces New Ukraine-Related Sanctions.” The White House: President Barack Obama. March 17, 2014. https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/blog/2014/03/17/president-obama-announces-new-ukraine-related-sanctions 

Taylor, Adam. “That time Ukraine tried to join NATO – and NATO said no.” Washington Post. September 4, 2014. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2014/09/04/that-time-ukraine-tried-to-join-nato-and-nato-said-no/ 

Traynor, Ian. “Nato allies divided over Ukraine and Georgia.” The Guardian. December 1, 2008. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/dec/02/ukraine-georgia 

Troianovski, Anton. “Why Vladimir Putin Invokes Nazis to Justify His Invasion of Ukraine.” New York Times. March 17, 2022. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/17/world/europe/ukraine-putin-nazis.html 

“Ukrainian Leader Makes a Push to Join NATO.” ABC News. April 1, 2008. https://abcnews.go.com/International/story?id=4563808&page=1 

Wilkie, Christina. “Nearly all of Russia’s initial invasion forces now in Ukraine, Pentagon says.” CNBC. March 7, 2022. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/07/pentagon-says-nearly-100percent-of-pre-set-russian-troops-are-now-in-ukraine.html 
Williams, Matthias and Natalia Zinets. “Biden assures Zelenskiy that NATO membership in Ukraine’s hands, Kyiv says.” Reuters. December 9, 2021. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-president-zelenskiy-holding-talks-with-biden-adviser-says-2021-12-09/

Notes

  1. Caldwell, Leigh Ann and Theodoric Meyer. “Gen. Milley on Ukraine, Tuberville and ‘wokeness.’” Washington Post. August 18, 2023. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/08/18/gen-milley-ukraine-tuberville-wokeness/  ↩︎
  2. Mearsheimer, John J. “Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West’s Fault: The Liberal Delusions That Provoked Putin.” Foreign Affairs 93, no. 5 (2014): 77-89.  ↩︎
  3. Melvin, Neal. “Nationalist and Imperial Thinking Define Putin’s Vision for Russia.” RUSI. March 2, 2022. https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/nationalist-and-imperial-thinking-define-putins-vision-russia  ↩︎
  4. “Ukrainian Leader Makes a Push to Join NATO.” ABC News. April 1, 2008. https://abcnews.go.com/International/story?id=4563808&page=1  ↩︎
  5. Taylor, Adam. “That time Ukraine tried to join NATO – and NATO said no.” Washington Post. September 4, 2014. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2014/09/04/that-time-ukraine-tried-to-join-nato-and-nato-said-no/  ↩︎
  6. “Bucharest Summit Declaration.” NATO. April 3, 2008. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_8443.htm  ↩︎
  7. Wilkie, Christina. “Nearly all of Russia’s initial invasion forces now in Ukraine, Pentagon says.” CNBC. March 7, 2022. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/07/pentagon-says-nearly-100percent-of-pre-set-russian-troops-are-now-in-ukraine.html  ↩︎
  8. “Russia army vows steps if Georgia and Ukraine join NATO.” Reuters. April 11, 2008. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-nato-steps-idUSL1143027920080411  ↩︎
  9. Pifer, Steven. “Putin’s NATO Fears Are Groundless.” Brookings. July 2, 2014. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/putins-nato-fears-are-groundless/  ↩︎
  10. Bender, Jeremy. “This is the simplest explanation of why Putin is so opposed to NATO.” Business Insider. February 12, 2015. https://www.businessinsider.com/simplest-explanation-of-why-putin-hates-nato-2015-2  ↩︎
  11. Farchy, Jack. “Putin names Nato among threats in new Russian security strategy.” Financial Times. January 2, 2016. https://www.ft.com/content/6e8e787e-b15f-11e5-b147-e5e5bba42e51  ↩︎
  12. Osborn, Andrew. “Putin warns NATO against closer ties with Ukraine and Georgia.” Reuters. July 19, 2018. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-nato-putin/putin-warns-nato-against-closer-ties-with-ukraine-and-georgia-idUSKBN1K92KA  ↩︎
  13. Chatzitheodorou, Christina. “Security At The Polish-Lithuanian Border Kaliningrad, Suwalki Gap and Russia.” Finabel. February 2022. https://finabel.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/42.-security-at-the-polish-lithuanian-border.pdf  ↩︎
  14. Williams, Matthias and Natalia Zinets. “Biden assures Zelenskiy that NATO membership in Ukraine’s hands, Kyiv says.” Reuters. December 9, 2021. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-president-zelenskiy-holding-talks-with-biden-adviser-says-2021-12-09/ ↩︎
  15. “Full Blinken: The International System Is ‘At Stake’ With Russia.” YouTube. December 12, 2021. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VJw8mVuYsVw&t=571s  ↩︎
  16. Pamuk, Humeyra and Johan Ahlander. “U.S., NATO fully committed to Ukraine, says Blinken ahead of Lavrov talks.” Reuters. December 2, 2021. ↩︎
  17. Fisher, Max. “Putin’s Case for War, Annotated.” New York Times. February 24, 2022. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/24/world/europe/putin-ukraine-speech.html  ↩︎
  18. “Foreign Secretary deplores continued fighting in Georgia.” Foreign & Commonwealth Office. August 8, 2008. https://web.archive.org/web/20080828024606/http://www.fco.gov.uk/resources/en/press-release/2008/august/georgia-statement-080809  ↩︎
  19. Slack, Megan. “President Obama Announces New Ukraine-Related Sanctions.” The White House: President Barack Obama.March 17, 2014. https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/blog/2014/03/17/president-obama-announces-new-ukraine-related-sanctions ↩︎
  20. Slack, Megan. “President Obama Announces New Ukraine-Related Sanctions.” The White House: President Barack Obama.March 17, 2014. https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/blog/2014/03/17/president-obama-announces-new-ukraine-related-sanctions ↩︎
  21. Hird, Karolina, Grace Mappes, Kateryna Stepanenko, Angelica Evans, and Mason Clark. “Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 8, 2023.” Institute for the Study of War. October 8, 2023. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-8-2023 ↩︎
  22. Mearsheimer, John J. and Sebastian Rosato. “The Russian invasion was a rational act.” UnHerd. September 14, 2023. https://unherd.com/2023/09/the-russian-invasion-was-a-rational-act/ ↩︎