The AI-based Modeling of Democratic Development and Decline (AIM-3D) project is an initiative of professors and students from the Lucy Family Institute for Data & Society and the Kellogg Institute for International Studies at the University of Notre Dame. It brings together political, data, and computer scientists to develop an AI-powered system for modeling and forecasting democratic and autocratic change across nations – AIM-3D Hub.

AIM-3D is an empirically grounded and theoretically informed effort to build an AI-based data, modeling, and knowledge hub that systematically analyzes the trajectories of democratization and autocratization across nations. Leveraging recent advances in artificial intelligence, AIM-3D seeks not merely to automate analysis, but to integrate computational modeling with established theories of democratic change, enabling new forms of predictive and explanatory insight into political development and decline.

The AIM-3D Hub integrates diverse datasets, advanced causal and machine-learning models, and theory-driven analyses to better understand the dynamics that strengthen or weaken democratic systems.

By combining transparency, analytical rigor, and accessibility, AIM-3D aims to transform how scholars, policymakers, and the public analyze and engage with global patterns of democratic resilience and decline.

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