AI-driven Modeling & Forecasting for Democratic Development and Decline (AIM4D)
International Conference at the University of Notre Dame
October 15-17, 2026
Conveners: Michael Coppedge and Dmitry Zaytsev
Thursday, October 15, 2026
before 6:00 pm: Arrival & Check-in for Panelists and Paper Presenters
6:00 – 8:00 pm: Welcome Dinner for Panelists and Paper Presenters
Note, general registrants can check-in on Friday
Friday, October 16, 2026
8:00 – 9:00 am: Continental Breakfast & Check-in (Hesburgh Center Great Hall)
Welcoming keynotes and panels (Hesburgh Center Auditorium):
9:00 – 9:20 am: Welcome & Introduction
Kenneth Scheve, I.A. O’Shaughnessy Dean, College of Arts & Letters, Professor of Political Science, University of Notre Dame
Michael J. Coppedge, Alfred C. DeCrane Jr. Professor of International Studies; Faculty Fellow, Kellogg Institute, University of Notre Dame
9:20 – 10:00 am: AIM4D Panel Session I : AIM-3D Public Portal: Official Launch Presentation
Dmitry Zaytsev, Associate Professor of Practice, Lucy Family Institute for Data & Society; Faculty Fellow, Kellogg Institute, University of Notre Dame
10:00 – 10:40 am: AIM4D Panel Session II : 10 years of V-Dem in Networks and Numbers
Valentina Kuskova, Professor of Practice, Lucy Family Institute for Data & Society, University of Notre Dame
10:40 – 10:50 am: Refreshment break (Hesburgh Center Great Hall)
10:50 – 12:00 pm: AIM4D Panel Session III : Roundtable with V-Dem PIs and PMs
Michael J. Coppedge, Alfred C. DeCrane Jr. Professor of International Studies; Faculty Fellow, Kellogg Institute, University of Notre Dame
Dan Pemstein, Professor, North Dakota State University
Steven Lloyd Wilson, Director, V-Dem Institute; Associate Professor, University of Gothenburg
John Gerring, Professor, University of Texas
12:00 – 1:20 pm : Closed Lunch for Panelists and Paper Presenters
Workshop I: Modeling and Forecasting Foundations (Hesburgh Center Room C103):
1:20 – 1:40 pm: Tour de Table
1:40 – 2:25 pm: Andreas Beger*, Daniel Hill, Richard Morgan, Marina Nord, Marius Radean. Forecasting democracy when the past keeps changing.
Discussants: Steven Wilson and Manuela Muñoz
2:25 – 3:10 pm: Michael Coppedge*, Dmitry Zaytsev, Valentina Kuskova. AIM-3D: A Prototype Neural Network for Modeling Democratization: Causal Sequences in Long-Term Democratic Development.
Discussants: Dan Pemstein and Steven Wilson
3:10 – 3:30 pm: Refreshment Break for Panelists and Paper Presenters (Hesburgh Center Great Hall)
Workshop II: Measurement and Data Construction (Hesburgh Center Room C103):
3:30 – 4:15 pm: Matthew Charles Wilson*, Kelsey Martin-Morales and Gregory Nelson. From Text to Events: Deriving Indicators of Democratic Backsliding from Freedom House Reports.
Discussants: John Gerring and Matthew Hauenstein
4:15 – 5:00 pm: Emmanuel Teitelbaum. A Country by Any Other Name. How Language Models Use Entity Knowledge in Rating Tasks.
Discussants: Dan Pemstein and Miklos Sebok
5:00 – 5:45 pm: Daniel Quiroga-Ángel. Measuring Regimes Beyond Democracy: A Global Index of Constitutional Liberalism.
Discussants: Humeyra Biricik and Valentina Kuskova
6:00 – 8:00 pm: 10-year V-Dem Celebration Dinner for Invited Guests, Panelists, and Paper Presenters (Jenkins Nanovic Halls, the Forum)
Saturday, October 17, 2026
8:30 – 9:10 am: Continental Breakfast for Panelists and Paper Presenters (Hesburgh Center Great Hall)
Workshop III: Early Signals and High-Frequency Indicators. Part 1 (Hesburgh Center Room C103):
9:10 – 9:50 am: Seraphine F. Maerz*, René Rejón. Shifting words, shifting regimes? The normalization of illiberal discourse and democratic decline.
Discussants: Cem Mert Dalli and Gabriel Cepaluni
9:50 – 10:30 am: Miklós Sebők. Forecasting Democratic Decline Through AI-Driven Detection of Illiberal Policy Frame Diffusion.
Discussants: Matthew Wilson and Seraphine Maerz
Workshop III: Early Signals and High-Frequency Indicators. Part 2 (Hesburgh Center Room C103):
10:30 – 11:00 pm: Humeyra Biricik. Executive Speeches as an Early-Warning Indicator of Democratic Backsliding.
Discussants: Emmanuel Teitelbaum and Manuela Muñoz
11:10 – 11:50 pm: Gabriel Cepaluni. The Machine Answers, but Does It Measure? Large Language Models and Democratic Institutions.
Discussants: Daniel Quiroga-Ángel and Humeyra Biricik
11:50 – 1:00 pm: Closed Lunch for Panelists and Paper Presenters (Hesburgh Center Great Hall)
Workshop IV: Structural and Causal Dynamics (Hesburgh Center Room C103):
1:00 – 1:40 pm: Hakan Mehmetcik. Democratic Diffusion: A Neural Causal Discovery Approach to Global Trade Networks.
Discussants: Andreas Beger and Seraphine Maerz
1:40 – 2:20 pm: Cem Mert Dalli*, Svend-Erik Skaaning. Elite affective polarization in parliamentary speech: A cross-national measurement design.
Discussants: Miklos Sebok and Krishna Sharma
2:20 – 2:40 pm: Refreshment Break for Panelists and Paper Presenters (Hesburgh Center Great Hall)
Workshop V: Forecasting Applications and Institutional Extensions (Hesburgh Center Room C103):
2:40 – 3:20 pm: Krishna Sharma*, Praval Sharma. Visible, Invisible, and Predictable Democratic Stress: Measurement Systems and Forecasting Democratic Stress in Nepal’s Post-Conflict Transition.
Discussants: Hamid Ait El Caid and Andreas Beger
3:20 – 4:00 pm: Hamid Ait El Caid*, Hassan Oukhouya. What does the future hold for democracy in North Africa? Forecasting democratic trajectories in North Africa using AI-driven methods.
Discussants: Matthew Hauenstein and Emmanuel Teitelbaum
4:00 – 4:20 pm: Refreshment Break for Panelists and Paper Presenters (Hesburgh Center Great Hall)
4:20 – 5:00 pm: Juan David Gelvez, Alejandro Cardiles, Eduard Martınez-Gonzalez, Manuela Muñoz*. How Predictable Is an Election? A Machine-Learning Approach to Electoral Behavior in Colombia.
Discussants: Gabriel Cepaluni and Cem Mert Dalli
5:00 – 5:40 pm: Matthew Hauenstein. Temporary Power-Sharing and Post-War Elections.
Discussants: Matthew Wilson and Hakan Mehmetcik
5:40 – 6:00 pm: Wrap-up: Big-Picture Implications
6:00 – 8:00 pm: Closing Dinner for Panelists and Paper Presenters (Jenkins Nanovic Halls, the Forum)
