AI-driven Modeling & Forecasting for Democratic Development and Decline (AIM4D)
International Conference at the University of Notre Dame
October 15-17, 2026
Conveners: Michael Coppedge and Dmitry Zaytsev
Day 0, Thursday, October 15, 2026
before 6:00 pm: Arrival & Check-in for Panelists and Paper Presenters
6:00 – 8:00 pm: Welcome Dinner for Panelists and Paper Presenters
Note, general registrants can check-in on Friday
Day 1, Friday, October 16, 2026
8:00 – 9:00 am: Continental Breakfast & Check-in (Hesburgh Center Great Hall)
Welcoming keynotes and panels (Hesburgh Center Auditorium):
9:00 – 9:20 am: Welcome & Introduction
9:20 – 10:00 am: AIM4D Panel Session I : AIM-3D Public Portal: Official Launch Presentation
10:00 – 10:40 am: AIM4D Panel Session II : 10 years of V-Dem in Networks and Numbers
10:40 – 10:50 am: Refreshment break (Hesburgh Center Great Hall)
10:50 – 12:00 pm: AIM4D Panel Session III : Roundtable with V-Dem PIs and PMs
12:00 – 1:20 pm : Closed Lunch for Panelists and Paper Presenters
Workshop I: Modeling and Forecasting Foundations
1:20 – 1:40 pm: Tour de Table
1:40 – 2:20 pm: Andreas Beger*, Rick Morgan. Forecasting Shifts in Democratic Governance: A Review of the Democratic Space Barometer Project
2:20 – 3:00 pm: Michael Coppedge*, Dmitry Zaytsev, Valentina Kuskova. AIM-3D: A Prototype Neural Network for Modeling Democratization: Causal Sequences in Long-Term Democratic Development
3:00 – 3:40 pm: Brandon Yee, Jacob Crainic*, Krishna Sharma. Democratic Factor Betas, Network Contagion, and Early Warning: A Five-Stage Econometric-Causal Framework for Forecasting Democratic Decline
3:40 – 4:00 pm: Refreshment Break for Panelists and Paper Presenters
Workshop II: Measurement and Data Construction
4:00 – 4:40 pm: Matthew Charles Wilson*, Kelsey Martin-Morales and Gregory Nelson. From Text to Events: Turning Freedom House Reports into Evidence of Democratization and Democratic Backsliding
4:40 – 5:20 pm: Emmanuel Teitelbaum, Seraphine Maerz, Michael Magid*. Augmenting Expert Judgment: Large Language Models and V-Dem Democracy Measurement
5:20 – 6:00 pm: Daniel Quiroga-Ángel. Measuring Regimes Beyond Democracy: A Global Measure of Effective Liberalism
6:00 – 8:00 pm: 10-year V-Dem Celebration Dinner for Invited Guests, Panelists, and Paper Presenters
Day 2, Saturday, October 17, 2026
8:00 – 8:30 am: Continental Breakfast for Panelists and Paper Presenters
Workshop III: Early Signals and High-Frequency Indicators. Part 1
8:30 – 9:10 am: Seraphine F. Maerz. Shifting words, shifting regimes: Public discourse and institutional change
9:10 – 9:50 am: Miklós Sebők. Forecasting Democratic Decline Through AI-Driven Detection of Illiberal Policy Frame Diffusion
9:50 – 10:30 am: Mario Pino Flores. Can Political Text Predict Democratic Backsliding? Evidence from Chile and Brazil
Workshop III: Early Signals and High-Frequency Indicators. Part 2
10:30 – 11:00 pm: Humeyra Biricik. Measuring Democratic Backsliding Through Political Speech
11:10 – 11:50 pm: Gabriel Cepaluni. LLMs as Standardized Sensors of Democratic Stress: Real-Time Measurement of the Normative Information Environment
11:50 – 1:00 pm: Closed Lunch for Panelists and Paper Presenters
Workshop IV: Structural and Causal Dynamics
1:00 – 1:40 pm: Hakan Mehmetcik. Democratic Diffusion: A Neural Causal Discovery Approach to Global Trade Networks
1:40 – 2:20 pm: Cem Mert Dalli*, Svend-Erik Skaaning. Estimating Elite Affective Polarization from Parliamentary Speeches: Cross-National Evidence from Five European Legislatures
2:20 – 2:40 pm: Refreshment Break for Panelists and Paper Presenters
Workshop V: Forecasting Applications and Institutional Extensions
2:40 – 3:20 pm: Praval Sharma, Krishna Sharma*. Forecasting Democratic Stress: A Spatio-Temporal Machine Learning Framework for Nepal’s Political Transition
3:20 – 4:00 pm: Hamid Ait El Caid*, Hassan Oukhouya. What does the future hold for democracy in North Africa? forecasting democratic trajectories in North Africa using AI-driven methods
4:00 – 4:20 pm: Refreshment Break for Panelists and Paper Presenters
4:20 – 5:00 pm: Juan David Gelvez, Eduard Martinez, Manuela Muñoz*, Laura Sinisterra. Persistent Cleavages and Electoral Dynamics in Democratic Systems: Evidence from Colombia
5:00 – 5:40 pm: Matthew Hauenstein. Temporary Power-Sharing and Post-War Elections
5:40 – 6:00 pm: Wrap-up: Big-Picture Implications
6:00 – 8:00 pm: Closing Dinner for Panelists and Paper Presenters
