Introduction

The Modeling Tools component focuses on data curation, creation of new metrics, and modeling and forecasting of democratization and autocratization trends using causal and machine learning (ML) approaches.

Our Approach

AIM-3D is an empirically grounded and theoretically informed effort to build an AI-based data, modeling, and knowledge hub that systematically analyzes the trajectories of democratization and autocratization across nations.

Leveraging recent advances in artificial intelligence, AIM-3D seeks not merely to automate analysis, but to integrate computational modeling with established theories of democratic change, enabling new forms of predictive and explanatory insight into political development and decline.

Key Components

Data Curation – Integrating diverse datasets to create a comprehensive foundation for analysis

New Metrics – Developing innovative measures of democratic development and decline

Causal Modeling – Applying causal inference techniques to understand drivers of political change

Machine Learning – Utilizing advanced ML approaches for forecasting and pattern recognition

Theory Integration – Combining computational methods with established theories of democratic change

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