Catholic voters in the US do not belong to a single political party, yet they belong to the same Church. How do these Catholic values resonate with voters? More importantly, as political tensions rise in the midterm election, what factors should Catholic voters consider when heading to the polls?
Republicans have coined the term “Religious Right,” and historically claim to promote conservative traditionalist values.1 In fact, according to a 2024 Pew Research Center study, 85% of white Evangelical Christian voters tend to align more directly with the Republican party. However, the party’s hold on Catholic voters–white and nonwhite–is not quite as strong. In the same 2024 Pew Research Center study, it’s reported that out of all Catholics, 52% were likely to vote Republican, compared to 44% for Democrats. It is worth noting that a huge proportion of Catholic voters in the US are Hispanic voters who are more clearly divided between the parties–60% Democrat to 35% Republican–as compared to White Catholics.2 Overall though, the data shows that Catholics still do not “belong” to any particular party.
The mentioned Pew Research Center poll was from the 2024 election cycle, and a lot has changed in the world of US politics and in the Catholic Church since that time. In the realm of US politics, the Trump Administration has expanded its use of executive power, a move that remains highly controversial.3 The Trump Administration has also caused an uproar in issues of immigration and international intervention.4 On the other hand, in the world of Catholicism, Pope Francis passed away in 2025, leading way to the first Pope from the United States, hailing from the South Side of Chicago: Pope Leo XIV. Pope Leo since stepping into this vocation, has been outspoken against inhumane treatment of all individuals–vigorously calling for acts of peace.5
U.S. Catholics have experienced administrative changes in the Church and State, witnessing increased state-sanctioned violence within the US–such as deaths at the hands of ICE agents. As a result, it’s becoming increasingly imperative to watch Catholic voters as they face these dynamic shifts in authority figures. Knowing this, Pew Research Center recently conducted a new study on religious groups and their 2026 midterm preferences. From this study, it was revealed that the majority of Catholic voters, white and non-white, now prefer the Democratic Party (42%) to the Republican Party (39%). Despite this plurality, white Catholic voters still lean more Republican (50%) than Democrat (32%), but these margins are narrower than they were two years ago. Currently, data shows that the “Religious Right” only has a clear majority with White Evangelicals.6
There is no clear explanation for this new divide, but it’s worth noting that with the new Pope, there has been a strong emphasis on human dignity and peace. In Pope Leo’s Encyclical, he emphasizes that “ […] today we must once again reflect on the common good, the universal destination of goods, subsidiarity, solidarity and social justice.”7 This emphasis on the common good is in conversation with not only world leaders, but with all Catholics.
Since Catholics have been assigned homework, or perhaps reminded of Church Doctrine, it’s important for researchers, as well as political actors competing for the Catholic vote, to question if the Encyclical had any effect on party allegiances. It’s also crucial for researchers to consider that as the parties are increasingly polarized, is there any true representation of Catholic doctrine by either party? It is true that it is not the job of the government to encompass Catholic ideas, nor should it, as doing so would violate the long-established separation of Church and State. However, it would be interesting to study how Catholics vote in the 2026 midterm election: would the shift away from the Republican Party continue?
Despite any new patterns that may occur in the midterm election, it’s for the best that not one party “owns” the Catholic vote; it is the job of the Catholic voter to vote for policies that they believe will bring forth a more just society. In this election, Catholic voters must reaffirm and reassess their politics to consider human dignity and ask themselves what it means to build and maintain a society that values the common good.
- Wuthnow, Robert. “THE RELIGIOUS RIGHT.” In Red State Religion: Faith and Politics
in America’s Heartland. Princeton University Press, 2012. http://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt7rjr5.12. ↩︎ - Pew Research Center. 2024. “Party affiliation of US voters by religious group.” Pew
Research Center. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/04/09/party-identification-among-religious-groups-and-religiously-unaffiliated-voters/. ↩︎ - Hennen, Mia. 2025. “Trump’s number of executive orders surpasses first term.” Pew
Research Center. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/12/16/trump-has-already-issued-more-executive-orders-in-his-second-term-than-in-his-first/. ↩︎ - Baum, Matthew. n.d. “How do Americans feel about President Trump’s immigration
policy?” Harvard Kennedy School. https://www.hks.harvard.edu/faculty-research/policy-topics/democracy-governance/how-do-americans-feel-about-president-trumps. ↩︎ - Smith, Gregory A. 2026. “Religious Groups Differ Widely in Their 2026 Midterm
Preferences.” Pew Research Center. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2026/10/13/religious-groups-differ-widely-in-their-2026-midterm-preferences/ ↩︎ - Pew Research Center. 2024. “Party affiliation of US voters by religious group.” Pew
Research Center.
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/04/09/party-identification-among-religious-groups-and-religiously-unaffiliated-voters/. ↩︎ - Pope Leo XIV. 2026. “Encyclical Letter of His Holiness Leo XIV Magnifica Humanitas
(15 May 2026).” The Holy See.https://www.vatican.va/content/leo-xiv/en/encyclicals/documents/20260515-magnifica-humanitas.html. ↩︎