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Research

Working Papers (most recent first):

  • “Living Up to Expectations: Central Bank Credibility, the Effectiveness of Forward Guidance, and Inflation Dynamics post-Global Financial Crisis” with Stephen Cole and Enrique Martinez Garcia, January 2024, pdf.
    • Also NBER working paper #31777: link
  • “Unconventional Monetary Policy According to HANK” with Cynthia Wu and Ji Zhang, July 2024, pdf.
    • Also NBER working paper #30329: link
  • “Bury the Gold Standard? A Quantitative Exploration” with Anthony Diercks and Jonathan Rawls, June 2021, pdf.
    • Also NBER working paper #28015: link
  • “Can New Keynesian Models Survive the Barro-King Curse?” with Guido Ascari and Louis Phaneuf, March 2019, pdf, revise and resubmit.
    • Also NBER working paper #22941, link
  • “Growth or the Gap?  Which Measure of Economic Activity Should be Targeted in Interest Rate Rules?” November 2013, pdf

Peer-Reviewed Publications (most recent first):

  • “Tracking Weekly State-Level Economic Conditions” with Christiane Baumeister and Danilo Leiva-Leon, March 2024, pdf.  Review of Economics and Statistics 106(2): 483-504. Online appendix: pdf.
    • Also NBER working paper #29003: link
    • Link to published version: link
    • Link to data dashboard: link
  • “The Four-Equation New Keynesian Model” with Cynthia Wu and Ji Zhang, July 2023, pdf. Review of Economics and Statistics 105(4): 931-947. Online appendix: pdf.
    • Also NBER working paper #26067: link
    • Link to published version: link.
  • “Wall Street QE vs. Main Street Lending” with Dario Cardamone and Cynthia Wu, July 2023, pdf, European Economic Review 156: 104475
    • Also NBER working paper #27295: link
    • Link to published version: link
  • “Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks Using the Central Bank’s Information Set” with Ruediger Bachmann and Isabel Goedl-Hanisch, December 2022, pdf, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 145: 104555.
    • Also NBER working paper #29572: link
    • Link to published version: link
  • “Revisions in Utilization-Adjusted TFP and Robust Identification of News Shocks” with Andre Kurmann, May 2021, pdf, Review of Economics and Statistics 103(2): 216-235. Online appendix: pdf.
    • Also NBER working paper #23142: link
    • Link to published version: link
  • “Evaluating Central Banks’ Tool Kit: Past, Present, and Future” with Cynthia Wu, March 2021, pdf, Journal of Monetary Economics 118: 135-160.
    • Also NBER working paper #26040: link
    • Link to published version: link
  • “Are QE and Conventional Monetary Policy Substitutable?” with Cynthia Wu, February 2020, pdf, International Journal of Central Banking 16(1): 195-230.
    • Link to published version: link
  • “Without Looking Closer, it May Seem Cheap: Low Interest Rates and Government Borrowing” with Julio Garin, Robert Lester, and Jonathan Wolff, July 2019, pdf, Economics Letters 180, 28-32. 
    • Link to published version: link
  • “Are Supply Shocks Contractionary at the ZLB? Evidence from Utilization-Adjusted TFP Data” with Julio Garin and Rob Lester, March 2019, pdf, Review of Economics and Statistics 101(1): 160-175. 
    • Also NBER working paper #22311: link
    • Link to published version: link
  • “On the Welfare and Cyclical Implications of Moderate Trend Inflation” with Guido Ascari and Louis Phaneuf, November 2018, pdf, Journal of Monetary Economics (99), 56-71.
    • Also NBER working paper #21392: link
    • Link to published version: link
  • “The Output and Welfare Effects of Government Spending Shocks over the Business Cycle” with Jonathan Wolff, August 2018, pdf, International Economic Review 59(3), 1403-1435. Online appendix: pdf.
    • Also NBER working paper #19749: link
    • Link to published version: link
  • “The State-Dependent Effects of Tax Shocks” with Jonathan Wolff, August 2018, pdf, European Economic Review 107, 57-85.
    • Link to published version: link
  • “Inflation, Output, and Markup Dynamics with Forward-Looking Wage and Price Setters” with Louis Phaneuf and Jean Gardy Victor, June 2018, pdf (also NBER WP #21599, link), European Economic Review 105, 115-134.
    • Also NBER working paper #21599: link
    • Link to published version: link
  • “Raise Rates to Raise Inflation? Neo-Fisherianism in the New Keynesian Model” with Julio Garin and Rob Lester, February 2018, pdf, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 50(1), 243-259.
    • Also NBER working paper #22177: link
    • Link to published version: link
  • “The Relative Importance of Aggregate and Sectoral Shocks and the Changing Nature of Economic Fluctuations” with Julio Garin and Michael Pries, January 2018, pdf, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 10(1), 119-148.
    • Link to published version: link
  • “State-Dependent Fiscal Multipliers: Calvo vs. Rotemberg” with Jonathan Wolff, October 2017, pdf, Economics Letters 159, 190-194. Online appendix: pdf.
    • Link to published version: link
  • “What’s News in News? A Cautionary Note on Using a Variance Decomposition to Assess the Quantitative Importance of News Shocks” December 2016, pdf,  Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 73, 41-60.
    • Link to published version: link
  • “On the Desirability of Nominal GDP Targeting” with Julio Garin and Robert Lester, August 2016, pdf, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 69, 21-44.
    • Also NBER working paper #21420: link
    • Link to published version: link
  • “Inflation Expectations and Readiness to Spend at the Zero Lower Bound: Cross-Sectional Evidence” with Rudi Bachmann and Tim Berg, February 2015, pdf, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 7(1), 1-35. 
    • Also NBER working paper #17958: link
    • Link to published version: link
  • “Volatility and Welfare” with Robert Lester and Michael Pries, January 2014, pdf, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 38(1), 17-36. 
    • Link to published version: link
  • “Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data” with Ruediger Bachmann and Steffen Elstner, April 2013, pdf,  American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 5(2), 217-249. 
    • Also NBER working paper #16143: link
    • Link to published version: link
  • “News, Non-Invertibility, and Structural VARs” 2012, pdf, Advances in Econometrics 28, 81-136. 
    • Link to published version: link
  • “Taylor Rules and Technology Shocks” July 2012, pdf, Economics Letters 116(1), 92-95. 
    • Link to published version: link
  • “Information, Animal Spirits, and the Meaning of Innovations in Consumer Confidence” with Bob Barsky, pdf, June 2012, American Economic Review 102(4), 1343-1377. 
    • Also NBER working paper #15049: link
    • Link to published version: link
  • “Confidence and the Transmission of Government Spending Shocks” with Ruediger Bachmann, April 2012, pdf,  Journal of Monetary Economics 59(3), 235-249. 
    • Also NBER working paper #17063: link
    • Link to published version: link
  • “News Shocks and Business Cycles” with Bob Barsky, April 2011, pdf, Journal of Monetary Economics 58(3), 273-289. 
    • Also NBER working paper #15312: link
    • Link to published version: link

Other Publications:

  • “Federal Reserve Policy in a World of Low Interest Rates” with Cynthia Wu, pdf, Cato Journal 40(2): 343-360.
    • Link to published version: link
  • “Credit Market Frictions, Business Cycles, and Monetary Policy: The Research Contributions of Charles Carlstrom and Timothy Fuerst” with Todd Clark and Matthias Paustian, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Commentary 2020-07, March 25, 2020, pdf
    • Link to published version: link

Resting Papers:

  • “Differences in Quarterly Utilization-Adjusted TFP by Vintage, with an Application to News Shocks” May 2016, pdf. 
    • Link to different data by vintages and replication materials: link 
    • Also NBER WP #22154, link
    • Results subsumed in “Revisions in Utilization Adjusted TFP and Robust Identification of News Shocks”
  • “Reallocation and the Changing Nature of Economic Fluctuations” June 2013, with Mike Pries and Julio Garin, pdf
    • Replaced by “The Relative Importance of Aggregate and Sectoral Shocks and the Changing Nature of Economic Fluctuations”
  • “Permanent and Transitory Technology Shocks and the Behavior of Hours: A Challenge for DSGE Models” August 2011, pdf
  • “The Effects of Real Gasoline Prices on Automobile Demand: A Structural Analysis Using Micro Data” with Lutz Kilian, April 2006 pdf

Other:

My IDEAS/RePEc page: link

My Google Scholar page: link

My NBER page: link